BONDS: NZGBS: Richer After Lower-Than-Expected US CPI & Trump Toll Pivot

" IRAN'S MEHR ISSUES DETAILS OF THE 14-ARTICLE DRAFT MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING BETWEEN IRAN AND THE U.S.

IRAN'S MEHR ON MOU: COMPLETE LIFTING OF U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE WITHIN 30 DAYS - [RTRS]"

IRAN'S MEHR SAYS DRAFT U.S.-IRAN MOU CALLS FOR REOPENING STRAIT OF HORMUZ WITHIN 30 DAYS UNDER IRANIAN ARRANGEMENTS

IRAN'S MEHR SAYS DRAFT IRAN-U.S. MEMORANDUM WOULD SUSPEND SANCTIONS ON IRANIAN OIL AND PETROCHEMICAL SALES"

IRAN'S MEHR ON MOU: NECESSITY FOR U.S. AND ALLIES TO PRESENT RECONSTRUCTION PLANS FOR IRAN AMOUNTING TO AT LEAST $300 BILLION" - RTRS

"IRAN'S MEHR SAYS DRAFT DEAL ENVISAGES 60 DAYS OF TALKS ON NUCLEAR ISSUES AND FULL SANCTIONS LIFTING

IRAN'S MEHR SAYS DRAFT EXCLUDES IRAN'S MISSILE PROGRAM AND SUPPORT FOR RESISTANCE GROUPS FROM FINAL TALKS"

IRAN'S MEHR SAYS DRAFT IRAN-U.S. MOU CALLS FOR RELEASE OF $24 BLN IN IRANIAN BLOCKED FUNDS DURING TALKS" - RTRS

• RES 3: 133.15 - High Feb 24 ‘26
• RES 2: 131.06 - 61.8% retracement of the Feb - May Bear Leg
• RES 1: 129.01 - 50-dma (cont)
• PRICE: 127.97 @ 16:26 BST Jun 12
• SUP 1: 127.40 - Low May 18
• SUP 2: 126.19 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 125.70 - Low Feb 1999

Bearish pressure has eased, but the broader theme remains negative in JGB futures. Through the latest sell-off, the price printed through the lower 1.0% 10-dma envelope on the continuation contract, signalling the strength of downside pressure. This widens the gap with the 50-dma, a break above which is needed to highlight a stronger short-term reversal and signal scope for any recovery. The 50-dma is currently at 129.01. A strong bull rally would open 131.80, a Fibonacci retracement.  

The USD/JPY range Friday night  was 159.96-160.38, Asia is currently trading around 159.90. The pair has topped out above 160.00 again and is having some sort of a pullback thanks to the broader dollar complex coming back under pressure. The MOF/BOJ have seemingly drawn a line in the sand above 160 but the market is attempting to push them into a corner. Japanese officials will be breathing easier given the moves in the USD, a softer dollar takes some of that pressure off for now. A move back above 160-161 would be very problematic for them as it could see the pair really begin to accelerate higher if they are not around to stop it. On the day, the first support is toward 159.00-159.50 and then the 158.00 area. The CFTC positioning shows the market is again sitting very short Yen as they continue to press the Japanese officials resolve, so they are vulnerable should the USD capitulate on a signed peace deal. The underlying story regarding Yen weakness remains the same though and core positions are reflecting that. The BOJ meeting tomorrow will also be key to that story; can they be hawkish enough to add to the current USD headwinds. 

• “Japan’s Sanae Takaichi plans to propose a joint stockpile of critical minerals at the G7 leaders’ gathering.” - BBG 
• “Takaichi hailed UK defense cooperation during a meeting with Keir Starmer, despite uncertainty about a new fighter jet program. The two countries were also expected to sign an £18 billion clean energy investment deal.” - BBG
• CFTC Data up to 09/06/2026 shows Asset Managers continuing to add to their very newly built short Yen position, -76 773(Last -62 814). The Leveraged community did the same, adding to their already own larger core shorts, –115 036(Last -105 136).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 159.00($739m), 160.00($960m), 162.00($937m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 155.00($1.74b June 18 ), 158.00($2.1b June 16), 164.00($1.71b June 16) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 55 Points
• Data/Event : Tertiary Industry Index MoM

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P