BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Flat After Reversing Early Weakness

The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.28 - 143.67, Asia is currently trading around 144.15. USD/JPY had a brief spike going into the Japanese Fix but drifted back off that high for the rest of our session before finding a bid late on. 

• Bloomberg - “"Japanese government bonds may find short-term support as authorities signal efforts to rein in volatility. A draft of the government's annual fiscal blueprint highlights the need to boost domestic holdings of JGBs to help cap rising yields, Bloomberg News reports. While the proposal lacks specifics, it underlines broader plans for fiscal consolidation and more stable issuance.”
• “The 10-year auction earlier this week drew strong demand, but attention now shifts to Thursday’s 30-year sale -- the true litmus test for investor appetite. Ultra-long bonds remain the market’s weak point, and their performance will determine whether recent volatility persists.”
• MNI POLICY: June Tankan To Offer BOJ View On Rate Hike Path. TOKYO - Bank of Japan officials will closely watch the upcoming June Tankan survey, due July 1, for signs of resilience in non-manufacturers' sentiment and upward revisions to major firms’ capital investment plans, which would support its baseline view for a gradual rate-hike path, MNI understands. 
• The market still seems very confident of a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risks of pullbacks increase. Resistance around the 146.00 area held perfectly and the JPY bulls would be quite relieved as well as vindicated by the price action.
• A break below 142.00 in USD/JPY and all eyes will once again turn to the pivotal 140.00 area. Sellers should emerge on this bounce back towards the 144.00/145.00 area for now. The market might have to wait for Friday’s NFP print to see if it can make another attempt lower.

• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.50($698m), 145.00($629m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 140.00($2b June 5), 142.00($1.17b June 5), 148.00($1.21b June 5).

  Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

NZGBs closed at bests, with benchmark yields 5-6bps lower, on a data-light local session. 

• Cash US tsys are flat to 1bp richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest losses. The 10-year yield continues to find good support around 4.35/40%. Today’s US calendar will see ADP, S&P Services PMI, ISM Services Index and Fed Beige Book data.
• The NZ–US 10-year yield differential closed 8 basis points tighter at +10bps, marking one of the tightest levels since February. For context, the spread was around +40bps in early April.
• Swap rates closed 4-7bps lower, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with early 2026 leading. 6bps of easing is priced for July, with a cumulative 31bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Cotality Home Value, Volume of All Buildings and ANZ Commodity Price data alongside NZ Government 10-Month Financial Statements.
• The NZ Treasury also plans to sell NZ$200mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.50% May-35 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5994 - 0.6014 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6000. The NZD has found some demand just below the 0.6000 area as the US stock market pushed higher again overnight.

• Robin Brooks on X: “China was heading for deflation before US tariffs. Now goods pile up in ports and exporters struggle with rising inventories. Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but the big story is China, which will now tip into full-scale deflation.  https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1929784783195836689”
• The NZD held up ok with demand seen just below 0.6000, this while the USD continued to retrace higher overnight. NZD bulls will be hoping this demand holds in order to have another go at breaking above 0.6050. This might be a big ask though before we get NFP on Friday.
• The support back towards 0.5850 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050 could provide the spark for the next leg higher.
• CFTC Data showed Asset managers maintaining their shorts, while the leveraged community pared back only a little of the decent short they had initiated the week before.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5900(NZD401m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5990(NZD390m June 5), 0.5895(NZD305m June 5)

• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0752 - 1.0784, currently trading 1.0765.  A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the market will have been looking for a more dovish tone from the RBNZ last week and AUD/NZD could now see supply on bounces. The sell zone is back towards 1.0800/25 with the first target being around 1.0650.

  Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg