BONDS: NZGBS: Cheaper But Off Worst Levels On A Data-Light Session
Mar-27 03:47
NZGBs closed cheaper, but off the session’s worst levels, with benchmarks yields 3-4bps higher.
- Today, the local calendar was empty and remain so until Friday's ANZ Consumer Confidence and Filled Jobs data releases.
- NZ-US 10-year yield differential finished 3bps wider at +24bps, reversing yesterday’s narrowing. As a result, the differential hovers just below the widest level for the year and back at November 2024 levels.
- Cash US tsys are flat to 1bps richer, with a steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's modest bear-steepener. After the US closed yesterday, US President Trump signed an order for 25% tariffs on imports of all non-US-made automotives including light trucks to come into effect on April 2. Parts have been delayed until May 3 at the latest. US initial jobless claims and GDP data due on Thursday are likely to provide more clues to investors on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. Fed Speak from Barkin and Collins is also due.
- Swap rates closed 4-5bps higher.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat for 2025 meetings but 3bps firmer for February 2026. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 67bps by November 2025.
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JGBS: Futures Hovering Near Highs At Lunch Break
Feb-25 03:05
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are sharply stronger, +56 compared to the settlement levels, but slightly off the session’s best level.
- Outside of the previously outlined services PPI, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Later today, department store sales print, along with machine tool orders (both for Jan). There is also an Auction for Enhanced-Liquidity 15.5-39-year.
- “Joyo Bank Ltd. is holding off from investing in domestic bonds for now, despite being one of Japan's largest regional lenders. The bank's managing executive officer, Yoshitsugu Toba, expects the Bank of Japan to lift interest rates once more in July, but sees a risk that debt yields will climb further if the BOJ raises rates to around 1.5% in about three years.” (per BBG)
- Cash US tsys are ~3bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest gains.
- Beyond the 1-year, cash JGBs are 1-6bps richer across benchmarks, with the 7-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.3bps lower at 1.387% versus the cycle high of 1.466%, set last week.
- Swap rates are 1-3bps lower. Swap spreads are generally wider.
AUSSIE BONDS: AU-US 10Y Diff Sits In The Middle Of Range
Feb-25 02:44
The AU-US 10-year cash yield differential currently stands at +2bps, positioned in the middle of the ±30bps range that has largely held since November 2022.
- However, a simple regression of the 10-year yield differential against the AU-US 1-year forward 3-month swap rate (1Y3M) differential over the past year suggests the current spread is about 11bps above fair value, estimated at -9bps.
- The 1Y3M differential, a key gauge of expected relative policy trajectories over the next 12 months, has traded within a 15-20bps range this year and is currently at the upper end of that range.
- In early February, the 1Y3M differential had declined approximately 90bps since mid-September, falling from +55bps to -35bps.
Figure 1: AU-US Cash 10-Year Yield Differential (%)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
CHINA: Prime Rates on Hold Again.
Feb-25 02:14
- China held prime rates steady at 2.00% for the 1-Year Medium Term Lending facility.
- The PBOC conducted CNY300bn of 1-year medium term lending
- Maturities CNY200bn.
- Outstanding under the Medium Term Lending Facility at CNY4.09tn with a further CNY500bn to mature in February.
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