NZD: NZD/USD - Bounces Back Above 0.5800 As Risk Gets Some Relief In Asia

The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5799-0.5822 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 0.5820, +0.15%. The NZD has drifted higher as risk outperforms in Asia, looking to pare back some of the losses triggered by last week's US NFP.  The NZD moved sharply lower last week after being rejected once more toward the 0.6000 area, moving very quickly back to the lows of its recent 0.5800-0.6000 range. The resurgence in the US Dollar has turned its fortunes around and the CFTC data shows the leveraged community did very well to use the bounce to reload shorts. It's still not clear that we should be piling into USD longs but I suspect that the market will be skewed toward that side in the short-term. On the day, I suspect the 0.5845-0.5875 area could see sellers initially with the bears looking to have a look below 0.5800 and then ultimately challenge the uptrend around 0.5700-0.5730. 

• MNI - NZ Strong Q1 Manufacturing Growth, RBNZ Forecasting 1% q/q Q1 GDP: There was a strong rise in Q1 manufacturing volumes, which with a solid rise in real retail sales and export volumes in the quarter should support GDP growth which is released 18 June. The RBNZ has a 1% q/q Q1 increase in its May forecasts as most of the quarter occurred before the onset of the Iran War. It is likely to be felt in Q2 though with the RBNZ expecting growth to be flat on the quarter.
• MNI - China: Exports Top Expectations as Imports Surge. Those still holding reservations about the growing strength of China's economy may be revisiting their view on rates as May's export numbers topped expectations. May exports jumped +19.4% YoY in USD terms topping the April expansion of +14.1%. Imports surged also up +27.4% above April's expansion of +25.3%.
• CFTC Data up to 02/06/2026 shows Asset Managers continuing to reduce their core short positions in the NZD, -26177(Last -34071). The Leveraged community used the bounce to aggressively add their own shorts, -27797(Last -13767). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data:  none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5500(NZD685m June 10), 0.5775(NZD460m June 10), 0.5800(NZD475m June 10) - BBG
• The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 51 Points

Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P