FOREX: NZD Outperformance Notable in Overall Steady Session
Jul-09 16:39
- The dollar tilts marginally lower on Thursday owing to firmer risk sentiment and a solid pullback for Brent crude futures back below $77/bbl. Moves for the greenback have remained contained, however, with the DXY spending the entire week broadly respecting a 100.80-101.20 range. This consolidating price action keeps 20-day EMA support intact, and the bullish trend in place for now.
- Standing out on the session has been the relative outperformance for the New Zealand dollar. The steady grind higher for NZDUSD has continued across Thursday’s session, with intra-day gains extending to 1% in recent trade. Topside momentum appears to have been assisted on a break of the 20-day EMA for the pair, which intersected today around the 0.5720 mark.
- Next resistance is seen at 0.5782, the 50-day EMA, while key supports for AUDNZD are also fast approaching.
- We have highlighted trendline support for AUDNZD coming in at 1.2059 today, a break of which could help exacerbate the move south for the cross. This would signal scope for a retest of the early June lows at 1.1984, and should the move really start to accelerate, 1.1799 is an obvious target further out.
- Renewed strength for crude this week has assisted a solid rebound for NOKSEK, and moderate strength today briefly saw this recovery extend to a little over 2%. A print above 0.9978 would place the cross at its highest level since June 11, likely dismissing the recent bearish threat posed across June.
- Norwegian CPI data is scheduled on Friday, ahead of Canada June employment data, which headlines the calendar.
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LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: May CPI Inflation Metrics, 10Y Note Re-Open
Jun-09 16:24
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 06/10 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-2.5%, --)
- 06/10 0830 CPI MoM (0.6%, 0.5%), YoY (3.8%, 4.2%)
- 06/10 0830 Core CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.8%, 2.9%)
- 06/10 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (-0.3%, --), Weekly (-0.2%, --)
- 06/10 1130 US Tsy 17W bill auction
- 06/10 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note re-open (91282CQQ7) auction
- 06/10 1400 Federal Budget Balance ($215B, -$282B)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U6) Resistance Remains Intact
Jun-09 16:22
- RES 4: 111-02+ High Apr 24
- RES 3: 110-28+ High May 7
- RES 2: 110-04 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-18/110-00+ 20-day EMA / High May 29
- PRICE: 109-06+ @ 17:21 BST Jun 9
- SUP 1: 108-25 Low Jun 08
- SUP 2: 108-08+ Low May 19 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 108-04 1.382 proj of Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 swing
- SUP 4: 107-29 1.618 proj of the Apr 17 - May 4 - 7 price swing
Treasuries traded lower Monday and only partially retraced those losses into the Tuesday close. Recent weakness has reinforced a M/T bearish theme and potentially provides an early signal that the corrective cycle that started May 19, is over. Note that recent gains have allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is 110-04, the 50-day EMA. The bear trigger lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview 3Y Note Auction
Jun-09 16:10
Tsy futures are modestly higher - still off early Monday highs (TYU6 109-07.5 last) ahead of the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CQV6) at 1300ET, WI is currently at 4.176%, 21.1bp cheap to last month's small tail. Results will be available shortly after the competitive auctions closes at 1300ET.
- The May 3Y Note auction review: Treasury futures extended lows (TUM6 at 103-15, TYM6 at 110-14) after the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CQR5) tailed: 3.965% high yield vs. 3.960% WI; 2.58x bid-to-cover vs. 2.68x prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up retreated to 62.96 from 74.81% (just below 5 auction avg of 64.04%); direct bidder take-up at 20.14 from 11.91% prior (22.6% 5-auction avg); primary dealer take-up to 16.90% vs. 13.28% prior.
| High yield | When-issued yield | Trade through (tail) | High - Median Spread | Bid-to-cover | Primary Dealer Percent | Indirect Percent | Direct Percent | Offering Amount | |
| 5 auction avg | 3.7136% | 3.7134% | (0.1) | 5.32 | 2.616 | 14.924% | 62.24% | 22.83% | $58B |
| 11-May-26 | 3.965% | 3.960% | (0.5) | 4.8 | 2.58 | 16.90% | 62.96% | 20.14% | $58B |
| 7-Apr-26 | 3.897% | 3.910% | 1.3 | 6.7 | 2.68 | 13.28% | 74.81% | 11.91% | $58B |
| 10-Mar-26 | 3.579% | 3.568% | (1.1) | 5.2 | 2.55 | 19.50% | 59.80% | 20.70% | $58B |
| 10-Feb-26 | 3.518% | 3.519% | 0.1 | 5.0 | 2.62 | 10.94% | 57.15% | 31.92% | $58B |
| 12-Jan-26 | 3.609% | 3.610% | 0.1 | 4.9 | 2.65 | 14.00% | 56.50% | 29.50% | $58B |
