NEW ZEALAND: "*NZ OCT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS 1.4% M/M: ANZ

• RES 4: 1.4328 1.764 proj of the Jan 30 - Mar 31 - May 1 price swing  
• RES 3: 1.4248 High Jun 24 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.4239 High Jul 6
• RES 1: 1.4202 High Sep 29
• PRICE: 1.4195 @ 16:52 BST Sep 29
• SUP 1: 1.3998 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.3964/3732 50-day EMA / Low Aug 21 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3715 76.4% retracement of the May 1 - Jun 24 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3672 Low May 12

A clear bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and another fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. The pair continues to trade above the 50-day EMA. Note too that last week’s gains confirmed a breach of 1.4126, the 76.4% retracement point of the Jun 24 - Aug 21 bear leg. This opens 1.4248, the Jun 24 high and the next key resistance. First key support to watch lies at 1.3964, the 50-day EMA.  

*TRUMP: DON'T KNOW IF IRAN WILL GIVE UP YET, BUT THEY'LL GIVE UP

• Treasuries look to finish mostly weaker, off bottom of range after extending cycle lows earlier. Curves twist steeper - short end outperforming after dovish comment from NY Fed Williams - his baseline outlook is for one further rate hike in 2026, but overall he suggests there is no urgency to tighten. Williams suggested there is "no need for urgency" while eyeing the "accumulation of more data" however seems like a steer away from a follow-up hike in October.
• Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday expectations that artificial intelligence will fuel a burst in productivity growth could result in boosting economic growth too much, which risks stoking inflation
• StL Fed Musalem said Fed officials must offer a clear framework for how they will make monetary policy decisions in order for interest rate moves to be transmitted optimally, and the central bank should consider specifying a time horizon over which it expects to hit its price and employment goals.
• On data, JOLTS Job openings were lower than expected in August as they fell to 7079k (sa, cons 7228k) from an upward revised 7335k (initial 7271k) in July. It left openings at their lowest since March although within wide ranges seen over the past year captured by a particularly low 6550k in Dec 2025 and a high of 7585k in April.
• Consumer confidence dropped sharply in September, with the Conference Board's latest survey showing deteriorating sentiment for both current conditions and expectations amid rising inflation. The Composite of 81.9 was the lowest since April 2014 (88.6 prior, 89.0 expected), as Present Situation fell sharply to the weakest since Feb 2021 at 109.3 (117.2 prior, 120.2 expected) and Expectations of 63.6 (69.5 prior, 68.5 expected) marked an 18-month low.
• Look ahead: Japan housing starts & Tankan Mfg index; China Bank holiday. In Europe: German, French and Italian CPI inflation data. US markets look forward to US PCE on Wednesday and NFP Friday as the key event risk on the calendar.