SWAPS: NZ 2Y At 4% Looks Achievable

The EUR/USD range overnight was 1.1557-1.1590, Asia is currently trading around 1.1600, +0.30%. The pair continues to build on last week's move as it bounces strongly off its 1.1500 support. The market is more comfortable selling US dollars, and while the pair holds above its support it will keep those Bears interested. The USD reversed its recent break higher and the signing of a MOU in the Middle East, should we see pen to paper this Friday could see it come under further pressure. On the day, the first resistance is around 1.1600-1.1620 and then the 1.1650-1.1700 area. Until we have confirmation of a deal being signed and then ships flowing through the Straits, I suspect we might do some work up there. The 1.1400-1.1900 going back well over a year now continues to hold. 

•  CFTC Data up to 09/06/26 shows the Leveraged community added aggressively back to their shorts, -49 290(Last –22 320). Asset managers slightly reduced their core longs, +308 064(Last +314 385). 
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 1.1500(EU5.03b), 1.1600(EU1.43b), 1.1800(EU1.28b). Upcoming Close Strikes :  1.1500(EU8.33b June 18 ), 1.1640(EU3.33b June 18 ), 1.1650(EU2.16b June 18 ) - BBG
• The EUR/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 56 Points

Fig 1 : EUR/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The export of aluminum products will likely keep rising amid growing demand in the new energy sector, while the widening price gap between domestic and international aluminum markets is opening up space for Chinese exporters to increase profits, Securities Times reported citing analysts. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 598,000 tons, an increase of 15.4% year-on-year, setting a new monthly export record in more than a year. The Middle East conflict has affected aluminum production capacity by over 2.5 million tons, with a recovery period ranging from 3 to 12 months, while the shutdown of Mozal aluminum plant in Africa has also exacerbated the global aluminum supply shortage, the newspaper said citing analysts. 

Dim Sum bond issuance reached CNY759.6 billion as of June 14 this year, a year-on-year increase of 50.4%, Securities Daily reported citing Wind data. Issuance rates are declining and maturities are lengthening, with the weighted average rate sitting at 1.4% and issuance term at 2.9 years. Currently, offshore yuan liquidity is ample, and enterprises can use this window to obtain low-cost financing, which will further promote the internationalisation of the yuan, the newspaper said citing analysts.