US DATA: NY Fed Inflation Expectations Remain Far Steadier Than U.Mich

The NY Fed consumer survey for May saw 1Y inflation expectations surprisingly soften and longer-term measures hold steady, continuing to undershoot the magnitude of the rise in inflation expectations seen in the U.Mich equivalent. 3Y expectations have only seen a modest increase during the ongoing Middle East conflict although remain above pre-pandemic levels for longer-term context. 

• 1Y inflation expectations surprisingly dipped in May to 3.46% (cons 3.7, albeit from a survey of just three analysts) to reverse the rise to 3.64% in April after 3.42% in March. It compares with a 2019 average of 2.6% or 2017-18 average of 2.8%.
• 3Y inflation expectations were steady at 3.13% in May after 3.15% in April, 3.08% in March and a string of ~3.0% readings prior to the Middle East conflict. It compares with a 2019 average of 2.6% or 2017-18 average of 2.9%.
• 5Y inflation expectations were steady at 3.02% after 3.01% in April, 3.05% in March and also a string of readings averaging ~3.0% before the Middle East conflict. This series only started in 2022.