POWER: Nordic Forward Curve May Descend on Temps, Wetter Outlook
The Nordic forward curve could descend - once it becomes liquid - weighed down by a much stronger outlook for Norway’s and Sweden’s hydro balances quelling some winter supply risks. And temperatures in the region are still expected to remain above the seasonal norm, rising from next week towards the higher end of ECMWF forecasts. But gains in German power, TTF may limit losses.
- Nordic Base Power FEB 25 closed up 7.1% at 36.15 EUR/MWh on 27 Jan
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 3% at 104.6 EUR/MWh
- Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 2% at 112.4 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 down 0.2% at 79.24 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1% at 48.32 EUR/MWh
- The unplanned outage on the 2.2-3.7GW power cable between Norway’s NO2- NO1 zones has been extended to 29 January, with the units still curtailed, latest Remit data show.
- Capacity on the 3.7GW NO2-NO1 link is curtailed by 1.2GW until 29 January 23:59 CET
- The 2.2GW link in the other direction is curtailed by 300MW until the same period.
- Norway’s hydrological balance was sharply revised up over 5-11 February by around 349-780GWh and is expected to end +11.82TWh on 11 February, up from +10.86TWh in the previous forecast for the same day.
- Sweden’s balance is also expected higher on the day and is now anticipated at +7.30TWh on 11 February from +6.70TWh previously estimated for the same day.
- And demand could remain somewhat below the seasonal average, reducing pressure on hydro stocks, as average temperatures in the Nordics are expected to rise from early next week and reach the higher end of the ECMWF forecast at around 4.3C on 9 February.
- The 1.17GW Forsmark 3 unit is still expected to return to the grid on Friday, after being pushed back from 28 January. The unit will take a few days to power up to full capacity.
- Nordic nuclear reactors were operating at 89% capacity on Tuesday morning, unchanged on the day. 10 of 11 units are still online, according to Bloomberg.
- Wind in Norway is expected at a 22% load factor, or 1.14GW on 29 January, slightly up from a 21% load factor today.
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USDCAD TECHS: MA Set-Up Highlights A Dominant Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4578 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4411 @ 16:08 GMT Dec 27
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4209/4041 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4209, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6482 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6370 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6215 @ 16:07 GMT Dec 27
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and the pair is trading closer to recent lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6370, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Lat SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup
Decent SOFR & Treasury option flow leaned towards low delta Tsy puts while SOFR options focused on upside calls as short end rates rebounded, helping projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
- SOFR Options:
- Screen/Block +60,000 SFRM5 96.12/96.62 call spds 3.0-3.25 over 95.56 puts vs. 95.92/0.36%
- +5,000 SFRH5 96.00 calls, 4.0 vs. 95.81/0.24%
- +3,000 0QF5/0QH5 96.00/96.12/96.25 call tree strip, 10.5 total (+1 leg 0QF, +2 legs 0QH)
- +2,500 0QH5 96.00/96.50 1x2 call spds, 7.5 vs. 95.995/0.14%
- +2,500 SFRH5 96.25 calls, 2.25 ref 95.815
- -2,500 SFRG5/SFRH5 96.00 call strip, 6.0 vs. 95.80/0.38%
- -3,000 SFRZ5 96.00 puts, 39.0 vs. 95.995/0.50%
- +2,500 SFRZ5 95.61/96.12 2x1 put spds, 2.0 ref 96.01
- +2,000 0QH5 96.00 puts. 22.0 vs. 95.995/0.51%
- +5,000 SFRM5 96.62/96.87 call spds, 1.5 vs. 95.91
- +5,000 SFRM5 98.00 calls, 1.5
- +2,500 SFRJ5 96.00/96.50 call spds, 8.0
- 2,400 SFRU5 96.12 calls ref 95.96
- 1,000 0QF5 95.87/96.00/96.12/96.25 put condors ref 95.99
- 4,000 0QH5 96.12/96.37 call spds ref 95.98
- 1,000 0QH5 95.37/95.50/95.75 broken put flys
- Treasury Options:
- 2,500 TYG5 111/111.5 call spds ref 108-18
- 2,100 FVG5 107/108 call spds ref 106-03.75
- 1,000 USG5 122/125 1x2 call spds
- over 5,800 TYG5 104 puts, 3 ref 108-16.5
- over 4,400 TYF5 108.5 puts, 5 last
- over 4,200 TYF5 108.25 puts, 1 last
- 3,200 TYG5 104 puts, 3 last
- 3,000 TYG5 111/112 call spds ref 108-21.5
- 2,500 FVF5 106.25 calls, 1 ref 106-04.5
