SOFR: Net Long Setting Most Prominent On Wednesday
Aug-14 10:26
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover in SOFR futures on Wednesday, with the former proving more prominent.
- The most meaningful net positioning swing came via net long setting in SFRU5 futures, with markets moving to fully discount a 25bp cut at the Sep FOMC and starting to price outside odds of a 50bp step in the wake of comments from Tsy Sec Bessent (hedging for such an outcome via SFRU5 call structures was also noted).
- Note that the likes of Fed's Goolsbee & Daly have played down the idea of a 50bp move.
| 13-Aug-25 | 12-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,199,377 | 1,207,180 | -7,803 | Whites | +34,875 |
SFRU5 | 1,344,952 | 1,281,264 | +63,688 | Reds | +4,202 |
SFRZ5 | 1,364,426 | 1,370,728 | -6,302 | Greens | -5,141 |
SFRH6 | 1,026,729 | 1,041,437 | -14,708 | Blues | +11,601 |
SFRM6 | 897,468 | 894,564 | +2,904 |
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SFRU6 | 876,164 | 885,067 | -8,903 |
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SFRZ6 | 1,017,926 | 1,008,469 | +9,457 |
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SFRH7 | 742,954 | 742,210 | +744 |
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SFRM7 | 921,540 | 932,524 | -10,984 |
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SFRU7 | 587,080 | 584,935 | +2,145 |
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SFRZ7 | 580,141 | 577,589 | +2,552 |
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SFRH8 | 344,940 | 343,794 | +1,146 |
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SFRM8 | 271,499 | 273,038 | -1,539 |
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SFRU8 | 205,294 | 206,036 | -742 |
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SFRZ8 | 233,518 | 222,814 | +10,704 |
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SFRH9 | 155,454 | 152,276 | +3,178 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - GBPUSD Tests Trendline Support
Jul-15 10:24
- In FX, a corrective cycle in EURUSD remains in play and the pair is trading at its recent lows. The trend condition is bullish with moving average studies continuing to highlight a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 1.1661, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards the 50-day EMA at 1.1501. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high.
- A softer short-term tone in GBPUSD remains in place and Monday’s move down marked an extension of the current corrective bear leg. The pair has breached both 20- and 50-day EMAs, exposing trendline support at 1.3430. The trendline is drawn from the Jan 13 low. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish threat and expose 1.3371 initially, the Jun 23 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3681, the Jul 4 high.
- A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY remains intact. Price is approaching the next important resistance, at 148.03, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and expose key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. On the downside, support to watch is 145.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would be bearish and highlight a possible reversal.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: June CPI, Fed Speakers
Jul-15 10:21
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 07/15 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-16.0, -9.2)
- 07/15 0830 CPI MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (2.4%, 2.6%)
- 07/15 0830 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.1%, 0.3%), YoY (2.8%, 2.9%)
- 07/15 0830 CPI Index NSA (321.465, 322.513)
- 07/15 0830 CPI Core Index SA (326.854, 327.819)
- 07/15 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (1.4%, --), weekly (1.4% rev, --)
- 07/15 0915 Fed VC Bowman welcoming remarks fin-tech conference
- 07/15 1130 $70B 6W bill auction
- 07/15 1245 Fed Gov Barr on financial inclusion (text, no Q&A)
- 07/15 1300 Richmond Fed Barkin speech on forecasting (text, Q&A)
- 07/15 1445 Boston Fed Collins closing keynote at NABE (text, no Q&A)
- 07/15 1945 Dallas Fed Logan on economy (text, Q&A)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
STIR: US CPI In Focus, Might Be A Wait To Hear FOMC Reaction
Jul-15 10:20
- Fed Funds implied rates are almost unchanged from yesterday’s close ahead of the June CPI report at 0830ET, with a next cut fully priced for the October FOMC.
- MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Jul2025_07eaecc8d6.pdf
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Jul, 16.5bp Sep, 30.5bp Oct, 48.5bp Dec, 58.5bp Jan and 72bp Mar.
- SOFR futures are also little changed, including terminal yields at 3.23% (SFRZ6, +0.5bp).
- There are multiple Fed appearances after the CPI release but we’ll likely have to wait until Barkin’s Q&A for the first reaction, at least from those scheduled to speak. After that, there’s a chance Collins will include some mention in her prepared remarks but we’re more likely to hear notable comments from Logan (hawk) after the close.
- 0915ET – VC Supervision Bowman (voter) welcoming remarks at Fed financial conference (text only). We’ll watch to see if she appears on newswires either side of this conference after her recent surprisingly dovish pivot saw her as probably one of the two dots looking for three cuts in what’s left of 2025.
- 1245ET – Gov. Barr (voter) on financial inclusion (text only)
- 1300ET – Richmond Fed’s Barkin (non-voter) repeats speech on “Forecasting beyond today’s data” (text + Q&A)
- 1445ET – Boston Fed’s Collins (’25 voter) closing keynote at NABE event (text only)
- 1945ET – Dallas Fed’s Logan (’26 voter) speaks on the economy (text + Q&A)
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