SOFR: Net Long Setting In SFRU5 Most Prominent On Wednesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover through the SOFR reds on Wednesday, before a mix of net short setting and long cover came to the fore further out as the futures strip twist steepened.
- The most meaningful net positioning swing came via net long setting in SFRU5.
| 06-Aug-25 | 05-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,225,953 | 1,228,733 | -2,780 | Whites | +14,768 |
SFRU5 | 1,299,725 | 1,265,095 | +34,630 | Reds | -1,763 |
SFRZ5 | 1,360,191 | 1,364,698 | -4,507 | Greens | -8,900 |
SFRH6 | 1,049,923 | 1,062,498 | -12,575 | Blues | -2,890 |
SFRM6 | 874,402 | 878,790 | -4,388 |
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SFRU6 | 856,066 | 853,616 | +2,450 |
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SFRZ6 | 951,467 | 952,629 | -1,162 |
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SFRH7 | 725,629 | 724,292 | +1,337 |
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SFRM7 | 779,372 | 780,513 | -1,141 |
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SFRU7 | 575,593 | 579,499 | -3,906 |
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SFRZ7 | 510,911 | 512,899 | -1,988 |
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SFRH8 | 332,344 | 334,209 | -1,865 |
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SFRM8 | 267,656 | 273,215 | -5,559 |
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SFRU8 | 205,702 | 206,936 | -1,234 |
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SFRZ8 | 216,888 | 215,554 | +1,334 |
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SFRH9 | 152,652 | 150,083 | +2,569 |
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In EUROSTOXX50 Futures Still In Play
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, the outlook remains bullish. Resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high, has recently been breached. The break confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This has been followed by a breach of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a 1.236 projection of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6011.49.
- Recent gains in EUROSTOXX 50 futures from the Jun 23 low, still appears to be a potential reversal and the contract is holding on to its most recent gains. Price has pierced both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of both averages would strengthen a reversal theme. This would open 5486.00, May 20 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a break of 5194.00, Jun 23 low, reinstates a bearish theme.
US NFIB JUN SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 98.6
- US NFIB JUN SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 98.6
BONDS: Continued heavy selling in European Bonds
Plenty of Basis trade suggest Cash sellers in EGBs as well as Gilt, latest Basis sees:
- G U5 1.95k at 91.58.
- OATU5 2.77k at 122.80.
Outright flows, include Bund 5k sold, Schatz over 10k, Bobl 7.5k.
The German Bund has seen over 30k trading in just under 10 minutes, and Bonds aren't seeing a relief bounce for now with the Auctions out of the Way.
