AMERICAS OIL: Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Boosted to 5-Month High
Net Bullish Nymex WTI Crude Oil Bets Boosted to 5-Month High
- Bloomberg -- Money managers have increased their bullish Nymex WTI crude oil bets by 19,927 net-long positions to 42,507, weekly CFTC data on futures and options show.
- The net-long position was the most bullish in about five months
- Long-only positions rose 17,047 lots to 168,480 in the week ending Jan. 13
- The long-only total was the highest in more than five months
- Short-only positions fell 2,880 lots to 125,973
- The short-only total was the lowest in 10 weeks
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AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.6686 High Dec 10
- PRICE: 0.6609 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 17
- SUP 1: 0.6595 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6562 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27
- SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21
The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. A pullback is allowing this condition to unwind. First support to watch is 0.6595, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day average lies at 0.6562. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger.
US TSYS: Focus on Thursday's Data & Four Central Bank Policy Announcements
- Treasuries see-sawed off early Wednesday lows to steady/mixed in late trade, focus on Thursday's heavy data (weekly claims, CPI, regional Fed and Tsy TICS) and Riksbank, Norges, Bank of England and ECB policy announcements. Fed speakers are absent tomorrow.
- We won't get aggregate CPI levels for October tomorrow, but as part of the November report's unprecedented format, the BLS will include data for some but not all subcomponents for October.
- Currently, TYH6 trades -1 at 112-15.5, yielding 4.1509% (+.0059). Curves mildly steeper, 2s10s +.995 at 66.588, still well off yesterday's 69.086% high.
- The short-term technical condition in Treasuries is bearish and near-term resistance points remain. A continuation lower would refocus attention on key support at 111-29, the Dec 10 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and open 111-19, a Fibonacci projection.
- On the upside, a clear breach of 112-23, the Dec 12 high would instead strengthen a short-term bull cycle.
- Gov Waller indicates in Q&A earlier that he's forecasting GDP growth of 1.6% this year and 2.5% in 2026 (vs FOMC medians 1.7% / 2.3%), and that supply-side improvements mean that stronger growth will not translate into stronger inflation (an argument advanced by the Trump administration as well as some of Waller's FOMC colleagues such as Gov Miran).
US PREVIEW: October CPI Data Could Include Key Core Items... Or Not (2/2)
The October data could include several of the major categories that we include in our Core CPI consensus tables: used cars and trucks and new vehicles; airfares; lodging away from home; and various communications and medical prices (for headline CPI, gasoline data could be published).
- At least one analyst (Nomura) speculates that the BLS could estimate rents and OER as well as rent data are collected through the Housing Survey and not the Commodities and Services Price survey.
- Below is MNI's collation of sell-side consensus on individual categories. It expresses the average M/M inflation rate over October / November, either from specific month-by-month estimates, or by halving the 2-month change.
