NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls

Jul-03 18:26

Henry Hub front month has lost ground as US close approaches to be trading lower on the day. EIA data showed an inventory build broadly in line with expectations.

  • US Natgas AUG 24 down 0.8% at 2.42$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas JAN 25 down 0.3% at 3.72$/mmbtu
  • The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending June 28 showed an injection of 32bcf compared to the expectation for an injection of 30bcf according to a Bloomberg survey and the seasonal normal injection of 69bcf.
  • Despite the below normal increase in recent weeks, the US storage inventories continue to hold above the previous five-year range, with total stocks at 3,134bcf compared to the previous five-year average of 2,638bcf.
  • US domestic natural gas production was yesterday holding relatively steady at 101.85bcf/d, according to Bloomberg
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas flows are today estimated at 12.3bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Domestic natural gas demand is today up to 76.2bcf/d today according to Bloomberg.
  • LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities increased 0.97% w/w to 2.09m tons in the week to June 30.
  • LNG imports into Europe fell 20% year on year in H1 2024 to 54.92m mt, the lowest level since H1 2021, Platts said.
  • Trades reported during the physical LNG Platts MOC reached a year-to-date high in June, Platts said.
  • LNG spot charter rates in the Atlantic basin have continued to strengthen since May, facing a late June rally.
  • African LNG producers exported 20.31m mt of LNG in H1 2024, down 6% on the year, Platts said.
  • Russian pipe natural gas and LNG supply to Europe was again greater than US LNG arrivals in Jun-24, ICIS said.
  • Indian state-controlled Gail is offering an LNG cargo swap tender for August loading.
  • MNI Gas Weekly - Full piece here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/65094/MNI%20Gas%20Weekly%20-%20%20Prices%20Ease%20Back%20as%20Supply%20Concerns%20Ease.pdf

Historical bullets

US: Republicans Slightly Favoured To Retain House Of Reps According To New Model

Jun-03 18:14

Republicans have a 56% chance of retaining House, - reflecting a “dead heat for the chamber” according to a new model launched by Split Ticket.

  • Split Ticket notes: “The 2024 House playing field has changed significantly since our previous official ratings update in September. In our last update, 210 seats favored Democrats and 203 favored Republicans, while the remaining 22 seats were tossups. In this iteration, however, both parties are favored in 211 seats, with 13 tossups.”
  • Split Ticket adds: “Broadly, this change is driven by two main factors. The biggest one is that this is a significantly more Republican environment…” and secondly, “this is our first update implementing a numerical model to determine quantitative estimates of the most probable outcomes…”

Figure 1: 2024 House Ratings

Source: Split Ticket

EURGBP TECHS: Bearish Outlook

Jun-03 18:00
  • RES 4: 0.8645 High Apr 23 and the bull trigger
  • RES 3: 0.8602 1.0% High May 9 and 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 0.8553 50-day EMA
  • RES 1: 0.8541 High May 31
  • PRICE: 0.8515 @ 17:45 BST Jun 3
  • SUP 1: 0.8484 Low May 29
  • SUP 2: 0.8454 76.4% of the Mar 7 - Sep 26 ‘23 bull phase
  • SUP 3: 0.8408 Low Aug 24 2023
  • SUP 4: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022

EURGBP is in consolidation mode and remains above last week’s low of 0.8484 (May 29). Conditions are unchanged and a bear trend is still in play. Key supports have recently been pierced; the 0.8500 pivot level, and an important support zone between 0.8498, the Feb 14 low, and 0.8493, the Aug 23 ‘23 low. A clear breach of these price points would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.8541, Friday’s high.

PIPELINE: $2.5B National Australia Bank (NAB) 3Pt Debt Launched

Jun-03 17:51
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 6/3 $2.5B #National Australia Bank (NAB) $900M 3Y +47, $850M 3Y SOFR+62, $750M 10Y +78
  • 6/3 $1.5B #Royalty Pharma $500M 5Y +100, $500M 10Y +127, $500M 30Y +152
  • 6/3 $1.3B #Burlington Northern Sante Fe 30Y +98
  • 6/3 $800M #Hyatt $450M 5Y +95, $350M 10Y +125
  • 6/3 $800M #Baltimore Gas WNG $400M 10Y +93, $400M 30Y +110
  • 6/3 $750M #Regions Financial 6NC5 +130
  • 6/3 $600M #GATX $200M 10Y +130, $400M 30Y +150
  • 6/3 $600M #Southwestern Public Service 30Y +150
  • 6/3 $550M #NY Life 5Y +62.5 (SOFR leg dropped)
  • 6/3 $500M #BGC Group Inc 5Y +220
  • 6/3 $500M #Metlife 10Y +95
  • 6/3 $Benchmark Nomura 5Y SOFR+39a
  • 6/3 $Benchmark Brighthouse 2027 tap +100, 5Y +125