NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls
Henry Hub weakened today, but pared earlier losses after falling to an intraday low of $3.171/MMBtu. Pressure comes as the market weighs the risk of another spell of cold weather in mid-February with near record production levels.
- US Natgas MAR 25 down 3% at 3.25$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 down 2.1% at 3.26$/mmbtu
- Lower 48 natural gas demand ticked up on the day back to near normal levels at 98.5bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. Average Lower 48 temperatures are forecasts above normal this week but with colder weather spreading southwards into the second week of the outlook.
- US domestic natural gas production is holding near record highs, estimated at 106.4bcf/d today, Bloomberg shows.
- Some producers plan to limit growth in 2025 until there's a sustained market demand for more supply, Platts said.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas has fallen to 13.85bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- China’s 15% tariff on US LNG could make it too expensive for Chinese importers, according to Bloomberg.
- This could compel Chinese gas buyers to resell the US fuel on the spot market and to other buyers in Asia and Europe.
- US natural gas production is near an all-time high due to strong demand and improved prices. But some producers plan to limit growth in 2025 until there's a sustained market demand for more supply, Platts said.
- Shortfalls in the Japan’s nuclear and renewable sectors will elevate the role of LNG to balance energy supply security with decarbonization, OIES said.
- Net European gas storage withdrawal rates have been holding near the previous seasonal five-year range since Jan. 30.
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JGB TECHS: (H5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 149.55 - High Mar 22 (cont)
- RES 2: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 1: 144.48/146.53 - High Nov 11 / High Aug 6
- PRICE: 142.12 @ 15:01 GMT Jan 03
- SUP 1: 141.65 - Low Dec 30
- SUP 2: 141.56 - 1.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
- SUP 3: 141.05 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
Markets slipped on the hawkish Fed and are yet to fully recover, touching 141.65 on the way lower. Medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high. Further out, key resistance is at 146.53, the Aug 6 high (cont).
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Flag Highlights A Clear Uptrend
- RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4392 @ 15:50 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 1.4336 Low Dec 20
- SUP 2: 1.4307/4232 20-day EMA / Low Dec 17
- SUP 3: 1.4136 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5
USDCAD is unchanged and bulls remain in the driver’s seat. The latest pause appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4307, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 0.6471 High Dec 9
- RES 3: 0.6408 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6341 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 0.6247/6282 High Dec 30 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6204 @ 15:21 GMT Jan 3
- SUP 1: 0.6179 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the pair continues to trade closer to latest lows. Recent weakness maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for an extension towards 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6282, the 20-day EMA.
