NATGAS: TTF Edges Higher After Falling to Lowest SInce Aug. 5
TTF front month is edging higher after falling to the lowest since Aug. 5 under pressure from healthy storage and a lower recent geopolitical risk premium as the system copes with lower Norway pipeline supplies.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 190.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 165mcm/d today rising to 237mcm/d tomorrow with of start of reduced capacity at Nyhamna and Kollsnes.
- European LNG sendout was up again to 258mcm/d on Sept 2 according to Bloomberg as flows have risen to cover for missing pipeline supplies.
- Above normal temperatures are expected in NW Europe through the coming weekend before gradually falling below normal by Sept. 11.
- European gas storage is up to 92.61% full on Sep 3 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 85.4%.
- Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.15mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
- Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is still near a third of normal levels at 22.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 319k on Sep 4.
- TTF OCT 24 up 0.8% at 36.08€/MWh
- TTF WIN 24 up 0.7% at 38.63€/MWh
- TTF SUM 25 up 0.7% at 37.89€/MWh
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Historical bullets
SONIA: Call Condor
SFIU4 95.00/95.10/95.15/95.25c condor bought for 3.25 in 4k.
SILVER TECHS: Approaching A Key Support
- RES 4: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
- RES 3: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
- RES 2: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $29.212/31.754 - 50-day EMA / High Jul 11
- PRICE: $26.866 @ 08:04 BST Aug 6
- SUP 1: $26.505 - Low Aug 5
- SUP 2: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 3: $24.328 - Low Mar 27
- SUP 4: $22.277 - Low Feb 28
A bearish cycle in Silver remains intact and Monday’s move lower reinforces current conditions. The metal has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low and this has exposed the next key support at $26.018, the May 2 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $29.212, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a possible reversal.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt opening calls, 99.74/99.96 range.
