NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Highest Since July 8
Sep-12 18:29
Henry Hub is set for its highest close since July 8. Support comes from another below average and below expectation build in US natural gas stockpiles, further eroding the storage surplus.
- US Natgas OCT 24 up 3.8% at 2.36$/mmbtu
- US Natgas MAR 25 up 0.1% at 2.93$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Sep. 6 showed an injection of 40bcf compared to the expectation for an injection of 47bcf according to a Bloomberg survey and the seasonal normal injection of about 67 bcf.
- Total US storage inventories are now 3,387bcf, holding a surplus of 296bcf, down from 323bcf last week.
- US domestic natural gas production at 100.2bcf/d yesterday, according to Bloomberg,
- Gas flows to the seven operational US LNG export plants was relatively unchanged on the day at 11.9bcf/d, according to BNEF.
- Domestic natural gas demand edged down slightly to 70.5bcf/d today but still above the previous five-year seasonal average.
- NOAA shows above normal temperatures are expected in central and eastern areas throughout the 6–14-day period but below normal temperatures are forecast for the west.
- Hurricane Francine has caused power outages across Louisiana including near Plaquemines LNG, according to data from utility Entergy cited by Bloomberg.
- Pipeline operator Enbridge issued a force majeure notice for its Nautilus and Garden Banks natural gas systems after Hurricane Francine, Bloomberg said.
- LNG export developer Glenfarne announced a preliminary head of agreement with an undisclosed global LNG player from its planned Texas LNG project, according to a company statement cited by Bloomberg.
- Asian LNG importers are increasingly using flexible LNG contracts to manage supply security, executives said at APPEC, cited by Platts.
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BOSTIC: HAVE TO REMAIN SURE UNEMPLOYMENT RISE IS DUE TO SUPPLY
Aug-13 18:26
- BOSTIC: HAVE TO REMAIN SURE UNEMPLOYMENT RISE IS DUE TO SUPPLY
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Rate Cut Hedging Rises
Aug-13 18:22
SOFR and Treasury option trade remained mixed on net Tuesday, two-way put and a pick-up in call sales in the former, while Treasury options saw a pick-up in outright call and vol selling as underlying futures hold moderately higher in late trade, curves bull steepening ahead Wednesday morning's CPI data. Projected rate cut pricing into year end continues to gain vs. this morning's levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -40.1bp (-39.4bp), Nov'24 cumulative -73.8bp (-69.8bp), Dec'24 -107.4bp (-101.4bp).
- SOFR Options:
- +5,000 SFRH5 96.25/96.50 call spds vs 2QH5 97.25/97.50 call spds, 2.5 net
- -10,000 SFRM5 96.75/97.25 call spds v 2QM5 97.12/97.62 call spds, .25 net
- -8,000 SFRZ4 95.06/95.12 put spds, 0.25 net
- +6,000 SFRX4 95.25 puts 2.0 vs. 95.78/0.09%
- +3,000 SFRH5 96.12/97.00 2x3 call spds 37.0 ref 96.265
- +6,000 SFRU4 95.12/95.18/95.25/95.31 call condors, 1.25 vs. 95.165/0.04%
- 1,350 SFRZ4 95.50/95.56/95.62/95.68 put condors ref 95.79
- +10,000 SFRV4 95.25/95.37 2x1 put spds w/ SFRZ4 95.12/95.25/95.37 put tree, 1.5 ref 95.775
- Block, 3,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.12/95.25 put trees, 6.0 ref 95.13
- 2,000 SFRU4 95.00/95.06/95.12 put flys ref 95.135
- 1,250 SFRU4 94.93/95.00/95.06 put flys ref 95.135
- Update, total +12,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/95.87/96.12 put condors, 6.0 ref 96.195
- 2,000 SFRV4 95.31/95.43/95.56 put flys ref 95.745
- +5,000 SFRU4 94.87/95.00 put spds, 1.75
- 2,150 SFRU4 94.75/94.81/94.93 2x3x1 broken put flys ref 95.13
- 2,000 SFRZ4 95.75/96.00/96.25 call trees
- 2,500 SFRZ4 96.25/96.75 call spds ref 95.735
- Treasury Options:
- -10,000 TYX4 112/117 call over risk reversals 0.0 vs. 114-06.5/0.50%
- -6,000 TYU4 113.75 calls, 28 ref 113-16/0.44%
- 3,000 FVU4 110/111 call spds, 6 ref 109-05.25
- -5,000 TYV4 112/117 strangles, 36 ref 113-28
- +5,000 5,000 TYV4 116.5 calls, 18 ref 113-23
- 7,000 wk3 TY 113.25/113.75 call spds vs. 112.5 put, 4 net ref 113-06
- 1,200 FVU4 110 calls vs. 107/108 put spds ref 108-29
- 3,000 Wednesday weekly TY 113.25/113.75/114.25 call flys, exp tomorrow
- 4,000 TYU4 114/114.25/114.5 call flys, ref 113-07.5 to -17
US OUTLOOK/OPINION: HSBC At Top End Of Unrounded Analyst CPI Estimates
Aug-13 18:17
- HSBC estimate core CPI at 0.225% M/M in July vs consensus leaning towards a slightly 'low' 0.2% reading, to leave the Y/Y rate steady at 3.3% (3.275% unrounded).
- “We expect the core goods CPI was unchanged m-o-m in July, with new vehicle prices unchanged m-o-m and used vehicle prices down 0.8%.”
- “We look for a 0.3% m-o-m rise in the weighted average of the rental price indexes (OER and rent of primary residence), the same pace of increase as in June. If realized, this would be the smallest increase in nearly three years.”
- “We look for a 0.5% m-o-m rise in airline fares, a 0.5% m-o-m rise in hotel lodging rates, and a 1.0% m-o-m rise in the motor vehicle insurance index.”
- They see headline CPI at 0.212% M/M, with the Y/Y rate unchanged at 3.0%.
