SOUTH KOREA: 'MSCI CHAIRMAN: NEEDS TO SEE SOUTH KOREA'S REGULATORY [...]

"*NZ TO PUBLISH 2025-26 GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL STATEMENTS OCT 8' - BBG

With a month to go until NZ’s 7 November election the outcome remains highly uncertain with the polls narrowing and the October RNZ/Reid survey showing the Labour Party with a 5 point lead and the centre-left block in front but 1News/Verian the Nationals 1 point ahead and the centre-right lead increasing. The September average of polls still had the incumbent centre-right slightly ahead. Given how close opinions are and the error bands around survey results, the election remains very close and too tight to call.

• The uncertainty is emphasised by mixed polls – some show the Nationals in the lead but others have Labour, some have a gap but others are neck-and-neck. Month averages show little difference between them and also support for Act, NZ First and Opportunity fairly stable. The Greens though are trending higher.
• With polls suggesting a very tight result, increased votes for the Greens along with a possible coalition with Opportunity, which Labour leader Hipkins hasn’t ruled out if they drop tax hike proposals, could mean a change of government. Luxon previously ruled out working with Opportunity, while the latter has said there is much it could do with the Nationals.
• The October 1NewPolls Suggesting Hung Parliament, Opportunity May Decides/Varian poll suggested that the centre-right and centre-left would win 58 seats each, if an election was held now, leaving Opportunity with 8 and the likely decider of a new coalition.
• The Nationals and Labour leaders held a televised debate on 6 October and afterwards 49% of the undecided panel would vote Labour, 24% Nationals and 27% still didn’t know.
• The Nationals will announce their fiscal plan Monday but Luxon said it will be very similar to the government’s pre-election update. Treasurer Willis said it would include a “credible return to surplus with no new taxes”.

NZ opinion polls (month average)

Source: MNI - Market News/Wikipedia

"*TRUMP TO MAKE ANNOUNCEMENT 1PM ET WED." - BBG