ASIA FX: Most SEA Weaker Versus USD, PHP To Record Lows, MYR Outperforms
In South East Asia FX, the bias has mostly been for a firmer USD. USD/MYR is down slightly, with higher oil futures potentially providing some help. USD/SGD is also relatively steady (near 1.2750). Elsewhere though, the USD is around 0.25-0.35% higher. The oil move, amid little signs of progress on the US/Iran outlook and re-opening Hormuz (with Trump reportedly not happy with Iran's latest proposal), is a likely headwind for regional FX, while equity trends are mixed.
- USD/PHP is trending higher and closing in on a 61.00 test (last near 60.95/00). Recall BSP Governor Remolona reiterated recently that the focus is on the rate of change in the pair and not levels. Hence, we haven't seen any fresh intervention signs so far today. That may change if we surge through 61.00. Familiar drivers around weaker equities, elevated oil, look to remain PHP headwinds.
- USD/IDR is also tracking up, last around 17235/40. Recent highs at 17315 remain intact, but dips in the pair remain supported, as cross asset headwinds for the rupiah continue.
- USD/INR also continues to rise, the pair last near 94.40/45. Upside focus will rest on a re-test above 95.00, which sparked an aggressive RBI response at end March/early April to curb speculative flows against INR.
- USD/THB is higher, but at 32.45 remains within recent ranges (albeit still all key EMAs). Recent highs in the pair rest just above 32.50.The authorities have revised up inflation forecasts for 2026, but also growth, with no stagflation risk seen. Tourism arrivals are expected at 33.5mln for this year, versus 35.5mln seen at the start of the year.
- USD/MYR remains wedged under 3.9500, not too far from recent lows. With Brent nearing $110 bbl, Malaysia's status as a net energy exporter is providing a crucial cushion.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US: Trump To Address Saudi Investment Forum Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to delivers remarks at the Future Investment Initiative, a Saudi business conference in Miami, Florida. LIVESTREAM
- The event comes amid reports that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is pressing Trump to continue the war with Iran. The NYT reports, "In a series of conversations over the last week, Prince Mohammed has conveyed to Mr. Trump that he must press toward the destruction of Iran’s hard-line government, the people familiar with the conversations said."
- Bloomberg reports, "The top official at Saudi Arabia’s wealth fund said it remains committed to investments around the world despite growing concerns over the mounting economic costs of the war."
- Yasir Al Rumayyan, governor of the $1 trillion Public Investment Fund, said: “The Saudi macroeconomic and physical position remains strong, stable and resilient. We measure our returns not in quarters but in decades, and PIF remains committed to its investments around the world.”
- Bloomberg noted similarly, last week: "The United Arab Emirates’ ambassador to the US threw his weight behind his country’s massive investment plans in America, amid concerns that a prolonged war with Iran could strain government finances across the Persian Gulf."
- For the latest on Iran war, see today's edition of the MNI US Daily Brief.
USDCAD TECHS: Bull Cycle Extension
- RES 4: 1.3985 76.4% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3929 High Jan 16
- RES 2: 1.3889 61.8% retracement of the Nov 5 ‘25 - Jan 30 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.3887 High Mar 27
- PRICE: 1.3885 @ 17:21 GMT Mar 27
- SUP 1: 1.3753 High Mar 3 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 1.3670 Low Mar 23 and a key short-term support
- SUP 3: 1.3526 Low Mar 09
- SUP 4: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and a bear trigger
A stronger short-term bull cycle in USDCAD remains in play and this week’s gains reinforce this theme. The pair has breached a key resistance at 1.3753, the Mar 3 high, highlighting a short-term reversal. Sights are 1.3889 next, a Fibonacci retracement level. For bears, a reversal would refocus attention on 1.3482, the Jan 30 low and a bear trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3670, the Mar 23 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.7187 High Mar 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.7123 High Mar 18
- RES 2: 0.7024 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.6978 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6874 @ 17:13 GMT Mar 27
- SUP 1: 0.6872 Low Mar 27
- SUP 2: 0.6834 Low Jan 23
- SUP 3: 0.6767 High Jan 7
- SUP 4: 0.6702 Trendline support drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low
AUDUSD has this week traded below support around the 50-day EMA, currently at 0.6978. A clear break of the average would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would highlight potential for an extension towards the 0.6800 handle. Further out, an important trendline support lies at 0.6702. The trendline is drawn from the Apr 9 ‘25 low. Initial firm resistance is at 07024, the 20-day EMA.
