US DATA: Mortgage Activity Looks Set To Continue Stagnating With Rates Elevated

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating on inflation has hit a new low of net -47.2, according to data from Silver Bulletin’s presidential approval tracker. 

• According to UK-based data analytics firm FocalData, Trump’s net approval rating on inflation and the cost of living has fallen off a cliff, “collapsing to a new low of -51, down 20 points in the space of a month. Just 18% of Americans now grade his performance favorably.”
• The outlet notes, “Even with his own voters, the president is underwater on inflation. Only 36% of those who voted for Trump in 2024 back his performance on the issue, with almost half (46%) disapproving.”
• FocalData adds, “Gas prices in particular are driving a wedge through Trump’s winning 2024 coalition. Those who chose the Republican ticket in November 2024 are more likely than average to say the cost of gas is one of the parts of the economy which affects them and their family most, with a majority (51%) selecting it in their top three factors when asked (compared to 41% of Kamala Harris voters).”

Figure 1: President Trump Approval Rating on Key Issues

Source: Silver Bulletin

• US equity indexes are running mixed at the moment, scaling off first half highs as US/Iran war de-escalation hopes started to fade. Currently, the DJIA is -.01%, SPX emini +.5% while the tech heavy Nasdaq gained 1.4%.
• This morning's "demand" by Pres Trump that Iran & Israel cease fire immediately is losing it's effect as saber rattling headlines emerge: "ISRAEL REJECTS IRAN’S WARNING NOT TO HIT LEBANON: KATZ" via Bbg.
• Equities, however, shrugged off the headlines - buoyed by IT and Energy related shares. Intel continued to lead the rally in the second half (+11.25%) after headlines announced Google had ordered some 3-million tensor processing units (TPUs are high end chips used for AI).
• Knock on support saw the following gain 8.0% to 9.5%: Micron Technology, KLA Corp, Coherent Corp and Applied Materials.
• On the flipside, Utilities and Real Estate sector shares led declined in the second half, electricity and multi-energy shares weighed on the former with Eversource Energy and PG&E both down over 3.5%.
• REITs, particularly health care and specialized trusts weighed on the Real Estate sector: Ventas -3.05%, SBA Comm -4.05% and Crown Castle -3.0%.

• "IRAN'S TOP NEGOTIATOR QALIBAF IN MESSAGE POSTED ON HIS TELEGRAM CHANNEL: WE WILL TURN THE NAVAL BLOCKADE INTO ANOTHER DEFEAT FOR THE 'ENEMY'"
• "TRUMP'S STATEMENTS ABOUT THE MOU WERE AGAINST THE AGREED PARTS OF THE DEAL"
• "THIS SHOWS THE U.S. IS NEITHER SEEKING A CEASEFIRE NOR DIALOGUE" (Reuters)