POWER: Morning Renewable Forecast
Jun-05 08:20
See the latest European renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days from this morning, including the day-on-day change. German and French wind forecasts still point to low wind over the period, although solar will be high possibly limiting gains on delivery.
- France: Wind for 6-12 June: 1.92GW (unchanged), 1.82GW (+104MW), 2.72GW (-132MW), 3.78GW (unchanged), 2.97GW (+574MW), 2.07GW (unchanged), 1.14GW (unchanged), according to Spot Renewables.
- France: Solar for 6-12 June: 4.09GW (+144MW), 3.67GW (unchanged), 3.01GW (unchanged), 2.57GW (unchanged), 3.44GW (unchanged), 3.97GW (unchanged), 3.95GW (unchanged).
- Germany: Wind for 6-12 June: 7.92GW (+297MW), 5.15GW (+832MW), 12.42GW (-638MW), 10.15GW (-1.42GW), 6.46GW (-125MW), 3.04GW (+125MW), 1.96GW (unchanged).
- Germany: Solar for 6-12 June: 13.08GW (+234MW), 13.75GW (unchanged), 12.33GW (-181MW), 11.16GW (+1GW), 11.64GW (-538MW), 9.82GW (-380MW), 13.57GW (-625MW).
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OPTIONS: Expiries for May06 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
May-06 08:20
- EUR/USD: $1.0700-20(E1.9bln), $1.0745-50(E1.3bln), $1.0800(E586mln)
- USD/JPY: Y152.00-10($909mln), Y153.00-07($601mln), Y154.00($1.0bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6500(A$624mln), $0.6625(A$1.7bln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3900($993mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.2475($627mln)
RBA: MNI RBA Preview - May 2024: Prolonged Hold While Inflation “Sticky”
May-06 08:06
- The RBA is widely expected to leave rates at 4.35% at its May meeting. There is some chance that the tightening bias will be reinstated following the higher-than-expected Q1 CPI data but we believe that is unlikely given it was only dropped at the last meeting and that the RBA has covered themselves as it “is not ruling anything in or out”.
- Updated staff forecasts will be published with the May meeting statement and even if there are near-term upward revisions to inflation, the timing of the return to target will be key. There are likely to be some near-term revisions but we are not expecting anything material in 2025 and 2026.
- Inflation is moving closer to the band but slower than expected in February and so the Board can’t yet be confident that it is returning “sustainably” to target and it could still “be some time yet” before it does.
- Given the highly uncertain outlook and changes to the RBA Board, it is easy to see rates on hold for all of 2024. With an election due by May 2025, early next year is also tricky for a rate cut but February is still possible.
- See full preview here.
MNI: EUROZONE APR FINAL SERVICES PMI 53.3 (FLASH 52.9); MAR 51.5
May-06 08:00
- EUROZONE APR FINAL SERVICES PMI 53.3 (FLASH 52.9); MAR 51.5
