The GBPUSD trend needle continues to point north and the latest shallow pullback appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would pave the way for a climb towards 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2861, the 20-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day EMA, at 1.2722.
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Exit polls on the German election so far leave some uncertainty on potential coalition outcomes, while the possibility of debt brake reform apperas likely as of now.
The next Fed rate cut is again fully priced for the July meeting, following a 6bp futures-implied move today on the back of soft Services PMI data exacerbated in the afternoon by a risk-off move in equities.
Meeting | Current FF Implieds (%), LH | Cumulative Change From Current Rate (bp) | Incremental Chg (bp) | Prior Session (Feb 20) | Chg Since Then (bp) | End of Last Week (Feb 14) |
Mar 19 2025 | 4.32 | -1.5 | -1.5 | 4.32 | -0.9 | 4.32 |
May 07 2025 | 4.25 | -8.4 | -6.9 | 4.28 | -3.1 | 4.28 |
Jun 18 2025 | 4.14 | -19.4 | -11.0 | 4.18 | -4.2 | 4.18 |
Jul 30 2025 | 4.07 | -26.2 | -6.8 | 4.13 | -6.0 | 4.13 |
Sep 17 2025 | 3.97 | -35.7 | -9.5 | 4.04 | -6.5 | 4.04 |
Oct 29 2025 | 3.92 | -41.2 | -5.5 | 4.00 | -8.0 | 3.99 |
Dec 10 2025 | 3.86 | -47.3 | -6.1 | 3.95 | -8.8 | 3.93 |