LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: S&P Mfg PMI, ISM Mfg/Prices Paid

A new New York Times/Siena poll of six key Senate contests finds that, “Democrats are highly competitive, but for now they seem just out of range of flipping the chamber.”

• The Times notes, “The polls find Democrats ahead in only two Republican-held states, less than the minimum of four they would need to win the chamber, with Roy Cooper leading by seven percentage points in North Carolina and Graham Platner leading by two in the previously reported poll of Maine. Republicans lead by two points in Alaska and Iowa and three points in Ohio.”
• Notably, the survey indicated that the Texas race between Democrat James Talerico and AG Ken Paxton (R-TX) is a dead heat. With Paxton facing his own personal problems, the survey suggests that candidate quality is likely to be an issue for both parties in November. 
• Shortly after the release of the survey, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report noted, "The Alaska Senate race has already been teetering on the brink of the Toss Up column, and this week’s bad news for Republicans about the makeup of the ballot is enough to shift it into our most competitive category."

Figure 1: “In five of the six states, the Democratic Senate candidate is outrunning the generic party preference of voters”

Source: New York Times, Siena College

• RES 4: 1.3509 High May 25     
• RES 3: 1.3370 50-day EMA
• RES 2: 1.3298 20-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.3292 High Jul 1
• PRICE: 1.3282 @ 16:32 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.3140 Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3125 Low Nov 26 ‘25
• SUP 3: 1.3038 Low Nov 20 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.3010 Low Nov 5 ’25 and a key support

Recent gains in GBPUSD appear corrective and trend conditions remain bearish. A key support at 1.3159, the Mar 31 low, has been pierced, a clear break of this level would strengthen a medium-term bearish condition and open 1.3038, the Nov 20 ‘25 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Key resistance to watch is around the 50-day EMA, at 1.3370. 

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