US TSYS/SUPPLY: MNI UST Issuance Deep Dive: June 2026
We've published our monthly issuance deep dive - Hidden PDF
- The actual coupon size announcements for the May refunding auctions and estimates for the quarter brought no drama: the updated sizes through the coming months (including MNI Ests) is in the table below. The quarter’s financing requirements probably contained the most surprises of the refunding round, and even here they were relatively modest.
- More impactful was the lack of change in issuance guidance, which further pushed back expectations for the timing of the next size increase to well into 2027 if not beyond.
- We go through those outcomes from the May refunding, as well as tweaks to 20Y refunding auction settlements, and analysts' views.
- Monthly Auction Review: May saw another month of slightly soft coupon auctions. The only trade-through was the 7-year UST, which saw a high yield just 0.1bp below the when-issued level. The 2- and 20-year lines came out on the screws, while tails were elsewhere.
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US: Record No. Of Americans Say Economy Is Not Working Well For Them- PBS/Marist
A new survey from PBS News, NPR, Marist has found that just 35% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy, “which is also tied for worst mark in the poll. That record was set in March.”
- The report notes: “Several factors are piling on voters: Gas prices have surged to an average of $4.48 cents a gallon nationally, as of May 5, according to AAA. Before the war, prices were below $3 a gallon on average. Gas prices went up more than 30 cents a gallon last week… As a result, 81% of respondents said current gas prices are a strain on their household budget, including 79% of Republicans.”
- NPR writes, “By a 63%-37% margin, respondents said they blame Trump for the current increase in gas prices. That includes a third of Republicans… The same split said the economy is not working well for them personally, the worst recorded in the survey.”
Figure 1: How much, if at all, do you blame President Trump for the current increase in gas prices?
Source: PBS News, NPR, Marist
EURGBP TECHS: Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8742 High Mar 31 and Apr 1 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8680 50-Day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8644 @ 16:44 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 0.8620 Low May 01
- SUP 2: 0.8610 Low Mar 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25
EURGBP continues to trade closer to its recent lows and a bear threat remains in play. Note that moving average studies have recently crossed and are in a bear-mode setup, reinforcing current bearish conditions. Sights are on 0.8610, the Mar 16 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would resume a medium-term downtrend. Key resistance to watch is 0.8742, the Mar 31 and Apr 1 high. First resistance is 0.8680, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: On Iran's Uranium
- A Likely sticking point to US/Iran negotiations ... a moratorium on enrichment vs. Iran outright relinquishing their uranium is another thing.
- Trump has waffled on the matter - stating US would go in get it, to he doesn't care about it. Full circle:
:TRUMP: WILL GET URANIUM FROM IRAN," Bbg - Markets ignoring this point, however - Tsys trading firmer but off early morning highs, US $ and crude remains weaker/off lows, while SPX eminis & Nasdaq near record highs, DJIA +1.1%
