MNI UST Deep Dive: Refunding Preview - August 2025

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Upping The Ante For Bills And Buybacks

Treasury’s August Refunding round begins on Monday July 28 at 3pm ET with the latest financing estimates, followed on Wednesday July 30 at 8:30am ET by the announcement of upcoming auction sizes and any adjustment to guidance, as well as buyback operation details for the coming quarter. 

• There is no expectation of any change in nominal Treasury coupon sizes to the coming quarter, which will mark 6 consecutive Refundings of no increase.
• However there will be significant attention on other aspects, including the expected financing requirements, changes to the buyback program, and alterations to future issuance guidance.
• We outline MNI’s general expectations below, followed by a selection of analyst previews.
• We note that there is more variation than usual among analysts’ expectations, particularly on buybacks and on future auction size increases.