MNI US OPEN - Ceasefire Top of Agenda for Trump, Putin Call
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- UKRAINE CEASE-FIRE HINGES ON TRUMP CALL WITH PUTIN
- GAZA AIRSTRIKES SIGNAL END TO CEASEFIRE AS REGIONAL TENSIONS SPIKE
- UK AND EU ADVANCE TALKS ON SEIZING FROZEN RUSSIAN ASSETS
- MERZ ‘CONFIDENT’ ABOUT GERMANY’S MAKE-OR-BREAK SPENDING VOTE
Figure 1: Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index plunges as much as 7.1% to lowest since 2021
Source: MNI/BBG
NEWS
US/RUSSIA (WSJ): Ukraine Cease-Fire Hinges on Trump Call With Putin
President Trump’s hopes of getting Moscow to agree to a 30-day cease-fire with Ukraine are pinned to a phone call planned for Tuesday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is likely to push for territorial and other concessions. In Moscow, the Kremlin dampened hopes of any breakthrough. On Monday a top foreign-ministry official said that any peace deal would have to guarantee Ukraine’s neutral status and appeared to rule out any European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian soil, a key provision of Kyiv and Western allies of any peace deal.
US/RUSSIA (MNI): Trump-Putin Call Expected Between 09:00ET and 11:00ET
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are today scheduled to hold their first call since Ukraine accepted the terms of a US-brokered 30-day ceasefire agreement. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov told reporters this morning the call will take place between 09:00 ET/13:00 GMT and 11:00 ET/15:00 GMT. Peskov said the leaders would talk "as long as they consider necessary," noting that there is a "certain understanding" but also a "large number of questions to discuss", per Reuters. Newswires are expected to report confirmation of the call when it begins, with the first official statement likely to come via Trump's Truth Social account.
ISRAEL/MIDEAST (MNI): Gaza Airstrikes Signal End to Ceasefire as Regional Tensions Spike
Mass Israeli airstrikes on Gaza could see the return of open conflict to the region after two months of an uneasy ceasefire. The Hamas-run Gazan health ministry claims that over 330 have been killed in the airstrike that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said are a reaction to Hamas' "repeated refusal to release our hostages" and a rejection of an amended second phase deal put forward by mediators. Netanyahu says Israel will "from now on act against Hamas with increasing military strength". The Israeli PM says that the US was notified of the airstrikes and backs Israel's actions.
US/CHINA (BBG): Trump Says Xi Will Visit Washington in ‘Not Too Distant Future’
President Donald Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping would visit Washington soon, as trade tensions build between the world’s two largest economies. Xi will be coming in the “not too distant future,” Trump said Monday while attending a board meeting at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, as he touted a string of recent visits by leaders from India, France, the UK and Ireland.
US/JAPAN (BBG): Trump Tariffs to Raise Bar to Invest in the US, JETRO Says
President Donald Trump’s tariff campaign is likely to worsen inflation and raise the bar for Japanese companies to invest in the US, defying the president’s aim to lure investment and revive American manufacturing, according to the chair of the Japan External Trade Organization. Higher tariffs will raise the cost of doing business in the US with more expensive materials and products, while the president’s crackdown on immigrants is also likely to worsen a labor shortage and boost labor costs, according to Norihiko Ishiguro, JETRO’s chair.
US (BBG): US Births Fell in 2023 to Lowest Level in More Than Four Decades
US births declined in 2023 to the lowest level in more than 40 years, continuing a decades-long trend toward smaller American families. Total births for the year fell to 3.596 million, a 2% decline from 2022, according to a report released Tuesday by the US National Center for Health Statistics that confirms preliminary data published last year.
US (WSJ): Trump Team Explored Simplified Plan for Reciprocal Tariffs
Trump administration officials are roiled in debate over how to implement the president’s pledge to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, with aides scrambling to meet the president’s self-imposed deadline of April 2 to debut a plan. Officials have recently weighed whether to simplify the complex task of devising new tariff rates for hundreds of U.S. trading partners by instead sorting nations into one of three tariff tiers, according to people close to the policy discussions, who emphasized that the situation remains fluid and could evolve in the coming weeks. The proposal was later ruled out, said an administration official close to the talks, adding that Trump’s team is still trying to sort how to implement an individualized rate for each nation.
US (MNI): Trump Names Bowman to Fed VC for Supervision
U.S. President Donald Trump has nominated Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman to the key role of vice chair for banking supervision at the central bank, Bowman said in a statement Monday. "I would like to express my thanks to President Trump for nominating me as the Vice Chair for Supervision. I am grateful for the continued faith and confidence he has placed in me to fulfill this vital role," Bowman said in a statement.
UK/EU (BBG): UK and EU Advance Talks on Seizing Frozen Russian Assets
The UK and European Union will advance talks on how to seize frozen Russian assets to jointly boost defense spending, as they seek ways to increase economic pressure on Vladimir Putin ahead of any peace talks to end his war on Ukraine. Foreign Secretary David Lammy and the EU’s top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, will review “innovative initiatives” to collectively step up European defense funding and bolster military readiness in a meeting in London on Tuesday, the UK Foreign Office said.
GERMANY (FT): Merz ‘Confident’ About Germany’s Make-Or-Break Spending Vote
Germany’s incoming chancellor Friedrich Merz has expressed “confidence” about Tuesday’s make-or-break vote in parliament over his plans to unlock up to €1tn for the country’s armed forces and ageing infrastructure. To pass the measures Merz, whose Christian Democrats won elections last month, has taken the highly unusual step of convening an emergency session of the outgoing Bundestag, where mainstream parties still hold a two-thirds supermajority.
ECB (MNI): Rehn Sticks to March Guidance Script in MNI Event Opening Remarks
Initial highlights from Rehn. Not much to deviate from the ECB's March guidance at first glance. More insight will likely be provided in the Q&A: "We are not pre-committed to any interest rate path. Policy rates are set at each meeting based on the latest information and our comprehensive assessment, next time on 17 April. The Governing Council retains full freedom of action in times of pervasive uncertainty".
CANADA (MNI): Limit to Dollar-For-Dollar Tariff Retaliation - Carney
New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Monday his country will face limits on matching any further U.S. tariffs dollar-for-dollar, one of the first indications of how he will manage the conflict between two of the world's largest trade partners. “There is a limit to matching these tariffs dollar for dollar given that our economy is a tenth of the size of the United States,” because such action will become "harmful," the former BOC and BOE Governor told reporters in London. Carney also said tariff revenue will go to helping workers hurt in the trade conflict.
CHINA (FT): BYD Shares Hit Record High on 5-Minute EV Charging Claims
Shares in China’s electric vehicle champion BYD touched a new record on Tuesday after founder Wang Chuanfu claimed the Tesla rival can now charge its EVs as quickly as it takes to fill a car with conventional fuel. BYD’s stock jumped more than 6 per cent to HK$408.80 ($52.62) per share in early Hong Kong trading, marking a nearly 85 per cent gain over the past 12 months.
RBA (MNI EXCLUSIVE): RBA Caution as Wages Growth Higher Than It Seems
Different measures say different things about the pace of Australian wage growth. On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.
INDONESIA (BBG): Indonesian Stocks Plunge Most Since 2011 as Growth Worries Mount
Indonesian markets reeled Tuesday, as concerns mounted over weakening consumer spending in Southeast Asia’s largest economy and President Prabowo Subianto’s populist measures. The Jakarta Composite Index slid as much as 7.1%, the steepest slump since September 2011, sparking a trading halt for the first time since the pandemic. The rupiah weakened as much as 0.5% versus the dollar, prompting the central bank to intervene “boldly” to defend the currency. Market participants were baffled by the sudden drop in equities, which defied gains in regional stocks. Traders attributed the downturn to a mix of factors, including an already weak sentiment fueled by dismal consumer confidence data. Speculation about potential changes in the finance ministry’s leadership further worsened the decline before a government denial.
DATA
CHINA DATA (MNI): China Crude Steel Output Down Over Jan Feb
MNI (Beijing) China produced 166 million tonnes of crude steel during January to February, down 1.5% y/y, data from the China Iron and Steel Association showed on Tuesday. The production of steel products totalled 224 million tonnes y/y, an increase of 4.7%, the data showed. Beijing’s moves to boost domestic demand and market expectations for output cuts should keep steel rebar futures at around CNY3,150-3,400 a tonne over the next few months, local analysts told MNI.
CHINA DATA (MNI): Beijing Industrial Value Added Up in Jan and Feb
MNI (Beijing) Beijing municipality’s industrial enterprise added value increased 6.4% y/y during January and February, driven by automobile and electronic communication manufacturing up 33.7% and 20.3%, data from the city’s statistics department showed on Tuesday. Fixed asset investment jumped 31.2% y/y due to recent equipment purchases, while consumption and consumer prices fell 0.1% and 0.5%.
FOREX: EUR/USD Makes Light Work of Bull Trigger
- EUR/USD made light work of yesterday's highs in early trade, rallying through 1.0930 with little difficulty and tripping the bull trigger in the process. Price action this morning was intially driven by USD weakness, but the looming debate in the 'old' Bundestag over the debt brake reform is due, and markets are building a successful passage of the legislation into the price.
- Reports in German press suggest there is sufficient wiggle room among lawmakers to secure a passage of the bill even in the case of a series of a no votes among both core lawmakers and the Greens - helping EUR outperform most others into the US crossover.
- The Trump-Putin call is set for 1300GMT/0800ET, at which the leaders are expected to discuss, in detail, the specifics of a Ukraine ceasefire, including settlement terms. Unexpected progress today could be seen as risk positive, posing further upside risk to EUR/JPY, which has helped pressure JPY to the bottom of the G10 table so far Tuesday.
- US housing starts and Canadian inflation data are the calendar highlights ahead of the industrial production release. The Fed remain inside the pre-decision media blackout period.
EGBS: Bund Futures Retrace Half of Yesterday's Rally Ahead of German Vote
Bund futures have retraced just over half of yesterday’s rally, as heightened expectations for incoming German Chancellor Merz’s fiscal package to pass through the Bundestag prompts a rotation out of EGBs and into European equities. Today’s uptick in crude oil futures may also be factoring into FI weakness.
- Today's Bundestag session is already underway, with the debate surrounding the amendments to the relevant fiscal laws scheduled to start at 10:35 CET/09:35 GMT. A roll call-vote will then follow the debate (some have suggested this could start around 13:30 CET/12:30 GMT), with the session scheduled to conclude at 15:05 CET/14:05 GMT.
- Bunds are -45 ticks at 127.53. A bearish trend theme remains intact, with 127.18 providing initial support.
- The German curve has bear steepened ahead of the Bundestag vote, with 5s30s up 1.6bps. German ASWs (vs. 3-month Euribor) are marginally tighter.
- 10-year EGB spreads have tightened up to 1bp on the session in tandem with the Bund weakness and equity strength.
- Bank of Finland Governor Rehn is currently participating in an MNI Connect event. His initial remarks were largely in line with the ECB’s March guidance, though he notes that his focus ahead of the April decision will be on Ukraine ceasefire negotiations and US tariff developments.
- Eurozone January trade balance data is due at 1000GMT, alongside the March German ZEW survey.
GILTS: Holding Lower
Gilts hold lower, with supply-related pressure, higher oil and equity prices and spillover setup for the German fiscal vote weighing on wider core global FI markets.
- Futures remain within yesterday’s range, session lows of 91.80 thus far.
- Yesterday’s rally increased the risk to the bearish technical setup.
- Bulls need to overcome the Mar 17/7 highs (92.37/63), with the latter providing key resistance.
- Initial support located at the March 13 low (91.07).
- Yields 3.5-4.5bp higher across the curve, light steepening seen. Psychological levels (50bp in 2s10s and 100bp ins 5s30s) continue to cap steepening moves.
- 10-Year spread to Bunds ~1bp wider at 183bp, last week’s range (177.7-184.4bp) remains intact on a closing basis.
- Plenty of UK risk events scheduled over the next week or so, with the latest BoE decision (no change expected, vote split eyed), labour market data and Spring Statement all due.
- We will provide greater details covering our own and wider market expectations ahead of these events via the usual round of previews, as well as real-time and post-event colour.
- GBP4.25bln 4.375% Mar-28 gilt supply is due this morning.
- Outside of the auction, macro & cross-market cues are set to continue to dominate, given the backloaded nature of this week’s UK risk events.
EQUITIES: Recent Cycle Lows in E-Mini S&P Reinforces Bearish Conditions
Eurostoxx 50 futures have recovered from their recent lows. The M/T trend direction remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at 5319.81. It has recently been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement towards 5202.00, a Fibonacci retracement. A continuation higher would open the 5600.00 handle. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a Fibonacci projection. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold. Recent gains are considered corrective and the bounce is allowing this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5967.23, the 50-day EMA.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 448.9 pts or +1.2% at 37845.42 and the TOPIX ended 35.44 pts higher or +1.29% at 2783.56.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 3.631 pts or +0.11% at 3429.759 and the HANG SENG ended 595 pts higher or +2.46% at 24740.57.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 252.25 pts or +1.09% at 23406.11, FTSE 100 higher by 29.13 pts or +0.34% at 8709.55, CAC 40 up 48.43 pts or +0.6% at 8122.98 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 43.04 pts or +0.79% at 5488.63.
- Dow Jones mini down 17 pts or -0.04% at 41866, S&P 500 mini down 3.5 pts or -0.06% at 5678.25, NASDAQ mini down 24.25 pts or -0.12% at 19810.75.
Time: 08:55 GMT
COMMODITIES: Latest Recovery in WTI Futures Appears Corrective for Now
A bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective - for now. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.77, 50-day EMA. A clear uptrend in Gold remains intact and this week’s resumption of the uptrend reinforces current bullish condition. The yellow metal has delivered another all-time high and breached the psychological $3000.0 handle. Bulls have their sights on 3034.51 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Key trend support is at $2832.7, Feb 28 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.77 or +1.14% at $68.34
- Natural Gas down $0.03 or -0.75% at $3.987
- Gold spot up $26.42 or +0.88% at $3026.12
- Copper up $1.35 or +0.27% at $497.4
- Silver up $0.23 or +0.68% at $34.087
- Platinum up $2.32 or +0.23% at $1007.09
Time: 08:55 GMT
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | * |  EU | Trade Balance |
| 18/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** |  DE | ZEW Current Expectations Index |
| 18/03/2025 | - |  US | FOMC Meetings with S.E.P. | |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** |  CA | CPI |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 18/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 18/03/2025 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 18/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 52 Week Bill |
| 18/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 20 Year Bond |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | ** |  JP | Trade |
| 19/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 19/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 19/03/2025 | 0300/1200 | *** | JP | BOJ Policy Rate Announcement |
| 19/03/2025 | 0430/1330 | ** | JP | Industrial Production |
| 19/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | *** | EU | HICP (f) |
| 19/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 19/03/2025 | 1200/1300 | EU | ECB de Guindos In Madrid | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1300/1400 | EU | ECB Elderson At European Financials Conference | |
| 19/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 19/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | *** | US | FOMC Statement |
| 19/03/2025 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 20/03/2025 | 2145/1045 | *** |  NZ | GDP |
