MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Buybacks Dominate But Yield Little Relief

• RES 3: 96.064 - 61.8% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont) 
• RES 2: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.670 - High Jun 25 / 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 95.425 @ 20:00 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 95.365 - Low Jun 09 and a key support
• SUP 2: 95.195 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 94.554 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The M/T uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures since Mar 23 is intact and the pullback since Jun 25 appears corrective. MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. However, the corrective cycle has resulted in a breach of 95.442, a trendline drawn from the Mar 23 low on the continuation chart. The next support to watch is 95.365, the Jun 9 low. Key resistance is 95.670, the Jun 25 and 29 high.

• RES 4: 1.3696 76.4% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle    
• RES 3: 1.3658 High May 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 1.3590 61.8% retracement of the Jan 27 - Jun 24 bear cycle  
• RES 1: 1.3481/1.3558 High Jul 7 / 15 and a key S/T resistance
• PRICE: 1.3374 @ 20:05 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 1.3342 Low Jul 14 and a key S/T support
• SUP 2: 1.3300 61.8% retracement of the Jun 24 - Jul15 bull leg   
• SUP 3: 1.3268 Low Jul 2
• SUP 4: 1.3239 76.4% retracement of the Jun 24 - Jul15 bull leg

Tuesday’s sell-off in GBPUSD resulted in a full retracement of the rally on Jul 15. Note too that the pair has traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This exposes the key short-term support at 1.3342, the Jul 14 low. A clear break of this level would undermine the recent bull theme and highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.3558, the Jul 15 high.

• RES 4: 1.1622 High Jun 15 
• RES 3: 1.1573 Trendline resistance drawn from the Apr 17 high
• RES 2: 1.1500 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 1.1483 High Jul 15 
• PRICE: 1.1411 @ 20:00 BST Jul 22
• SUP 1: 1.1378/25 Low Jul 13 & 14 / Low Jun 24 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 1.1299 2.000 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb 6 - 10 price swing
• SUP 3: 1.1210 Low May 29 ‘25
• SUP 4: 1.1111 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 ‘25 - Jan 27 bull leg 

EURUSD has been in a corrective cycle since Jun 24. The move higher has delivered a print above the 20-day EMA - at 1.1435. A clear break of this EMA would signal scope for a stronger recovery, towards 1.1500, the 50-day EMA. Trend conditions remain bearish highlighted by moving average studies that are in a bear-mode position. The bear trigger is 1.1325, the June 24 low. A break of it would confirm a resumption of the downtrend.