MNI UK Inflation and Labour Market Insight: April 2025 Release

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• We look through the details of the UK inflation and labour market reports.
• We compare the UK inflation report to the BOE's forecasts but with only relatively small surprises we note that global factors, the Trump tariffs and how much of the employer NIC contribution increase gets passed through will be bigger determinants of near-term and medium-term monetary policy. Although we do note that these data at least do not raise the bar at all to further cuts.
• For labour market data, we focus on the revisions to the AWE data and their impacts. We also take another look at revisions to PAYE payrolls data historically and note that it is too soon to tell whether there really was a big fall in employment in March. Either way, the quantities side of the labour market data continues to deteriorate.