SNB: MNI SNB Review: June 2026 - Content With Weaker CHF

EU sources provide an update on the outlook for an EU-US trade deal. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

The external Eurozone merchandise trade balance shrunk notably in March (E3.5bln vs E6.5bln Feb), the first month of the Iran war, to its lowest since June 2025 as oil imports shot up in value terms. The March deterioration leads an extension lower in the 12-month real rolling balance of the trade surplus - to 0.7% of GDP, its lowest since January 2024.

• While volume data is not released yet, import price indices strongly point toward the lower March trade surplus merely coming on the back of price effects, and it seems unlikely that much front-loading had been at play as Hormuz-related supply-chain issues came without widespread anticipation. Data over the coming months should keep the focus on the value / volume split, which will tell to what extent the Eurozone could substitute energy imports previously routed through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Non-energy import categories for the most part saw declines in March, with both manufactured goods as well as food, drinks and tobacco falling on a sequential comparison. Food, drinks and tobacco saw its seventh decline in the last eight months in March.
• Looking at exports, the overall value of products did see a 2.1% M/M rise in March (0.6% February) but that was also driven by higher energy prices, as "commodities and transactions not classified elsewhere in the SITC" as well as "mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials" rose 47.1% and 36.3% in March.
• Higher export values being outweighed by imports in March comes as the Eurozone is a net energy importer, and highlight that the bloc experienced a negative terms of trade shock through the Iran war. This weighed on the Euro following the outbreak of the conflict.
• Abstracting from the Iran war, the "manufactured goods" category, arguably key to the European export competitiveness debate, has developed sideways over recent months in value terms (-0.8% M/M in March data).
• A key part of that debate continues to be the EU's relationship with China. German firms operating in China are increasingly concerned about frictions between Brussels and Beijing as the EU advances new trade defence measures, the head of the German Chamber of Commerce in North China told MNI in a recent Policy Exclusive. "Rising EU-China tensions have become alarming and are on track to overtake those between the U.S.-and China if current trends continue", the source added.

• 15,000 TYQ6 109/110/110.5 broken call trees, 2 net