MNI Riksbank Review: November 2025 - No New Signals
Nov-05 15:10By: Emil Lundh
Sweden+ 1
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
- The Riksbank’s November decision brought few surprises. The policy rate was held at 1.75% in a unanimous decision, and the guidance language was unchanged: “The policy rate is expected to remain at this level for some time to come."
- In the press conference, Governor Thedéen was careful not to give any policy hints away. He suggested that the risks to the policy rate are balanced, in line with the horizontal rate path through Q3 2026 presented in September.
- There was no material market reaction in SEK FX and rates markets.
- We continue to think that the bar to a rate move over the next 6-12 months is fairly high, but caution that the risk of a hike back to 2.00% appears greater than the risk of another cut to 1.50%.
- Analysts are in favour of the policy rate remaining at 1.75% through the course of next year, with a handful expecting one or two rate hikes in 2027.
