MNI Riksbank Review - June 2026: Not As Hawkish As Feared

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank held the policy rate 1.75% as unanimously expected, and made a modest upward revision to its updated rate path relative to March. The policy statement noted that “the probability that the rate will be raised later this year has increased in relation to the assessment in March”, as a result of increased upside inflation risks.
• That said, these hawkish tweaks were less aggressive than expected by analysts and markets. The June MPR rate path was revised up by 5-10bps across the forecast horizon, with Q4 2026 at 1.82% (vs 1.77% in March). While in line with our expectations, this was a smaller upward revision than the analyst previews we had seen ahead of the decision (Q4 was seen between 1.87-1.98%). 
• In the press conference, Governor Thedeen noted that the new rate path was consistent with being 50/50 between a hike and a hold this year. 
• Overall, we continue to believe that the bar to the Riksbank hiking this year is high, even as the Board remains ready to act quickly if required.