MNI Riksbank Preview: March 2026

Uncertain Rate Path, No Knee-jerk Reactions

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% in March. We expect the policy statement to stress considerable uncertainty around the updated March MPR forecasts and rate path projection. Although the central forecast may still indicate that a 1.75% rate is appropriate through the course of this year, we are unsure if the Board will have enough confidence to repeat its guidance of steady rates for “some time to come” given the geopolitical uncertainty
• This should not necessarily be interpreted as an overtly hawkish tweak, but rather a reflection of the wider range of potential outcomes relative to December. Prior to the Iran war starting, developments since the December decision had been dovish.
• Overall, we think the first three quarters of the March MPR rate path should see minimal revisions relative to December (this is the part of the path “owned” by the Executive Board, and therefore constitutes a policy signal). That said, the Riksbank’s mandate prioritises inflation as a first order objective. The policy statement is thus likely to stress heightened vigilance on inflation and inflation expectations developments, and a willingness to act if required.  Increased focus should be paid on the March MPR’s alternative scenarios
• One scenario we can envisage is a relatively hawkish policy statement (i.e. vigilance and willingness to act on inflation), which is then dampened by a more balanced press conference from Governor Thedeen.