MNI Riksbank Preview - June 2026

Balancing Current Conditions With Upside Risks

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank is expected to hold the policy rate at 1.75% on Wednesday, leaving focus on the policy statement guidance and updated June MPR rate path projection. The US-Iran conflict has dragged on since May, but Sweden’s low underlying inflation pressures negate the need for rate action in the near-term.
• The updated rate path presents the main intrigue of the decision. In the March path (which was fully unchanged vs December 2025), Q3 2026 was 1.75%, Q4 1.77% and Q1 2027 (which at the time was model-implied) was 1.81%. Current economic conditions don’t provide a strong argument for a fully implied hike to be embedded in Q3/Q4 this year.
• However, we are cognizant that upside inflation risks have increased and there is a decent chance of Deputy Governor Seim dissenting in favour of a hike at the June decision following her April minutes comments. Governor Thedeen also adopted a relatively hawkish stance in those minutes. To placate the hawks, and to communicate a continued readiness to act in the face of the energy shock, the June rate path may be revised a little higher (e.g. by 5-10bps) in Q4 2026 and Q1 2027. 
• In this light, Governor Thedeen’s press conference is likely to lean a little hawkish to try and convey inflation-fighting credibility. He will likely point to survey evidence and the weaker krona as sources of upside inflation risk. However, the overall message will have to be somewhat tempered by commentary on Sweden’s economic conditions. Latest reports of a US-Iran ceasefire deal underscore that the geopolitical situation remains highly volatile, and this should reduce the likelihood of overtly hawkish forward guidance.