MNI RBNZ Preview-Sept 2026: Sept Hike, Shift Towards Neutral

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The RBNZ announces its decision Wednesday 2 September and revised staff forecasts will also be published. The cash rate and inflation profile will be of particular interest in gauging the outlook for monetary policy. 
• After starting a tightening cycle in July, the MPC is likely to hike 25bp in September to 2.75% as it moves policy closer to its estimated 3% neutral rate but given mixed data since the July meeting. All analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect a 25bp hike this week.
• The OIS curve has fully priced a 25bp hike for tomorrow, with 71bps of cumulative tightening priced by February 2027.
• Given mixed data since the July meeting, the MPC may indicate a possible pause in October while retaining its tightening bias.