MNI RBNZ Preview-August 2025: Rate Cut, Focus On OCR Path

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The RBNZ meets on Wednesday August 30 and is likely to cut rates 25bp to 3.0%, the mid-point of its estimated "neutral" range. While it paused at the July meeting, it was with a clear easing bias. 
• With the cut widely forecast, attention will be on the revised RBNZ outlook and tone of the statement and press conference. The focus is likely to be on the projected OCR path and whether it is revised lower suggesting further easing towards stimulatory territory as excess capacity persists.
• With the focus on the medium-term, the 2026 and beyond inflation forecasts will be the important ones and should remain around the 2% band mid-point. 
• RBNZ-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer across meetings with 23bps of easing priced for tomorrow’s meeting, with a cumulative 41bps by November 2025.