MNI: POWELL SAYS PCE INFLATION CAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

Mar-29 15:26



  • MNI: POWELL SAYS PCE INFLATION CAME IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS

Historical bullets

CROSS ASSET: A busy day ahead for Tomorrow

Feb-28 15:21
  • Just more order related flow in Govies futures, Bund is back off the low, with over 5k bought, to trade back above 132.20, while the 132.05 support level held again.
  • No new headlines or fundamentals.
  • Tomorrow really picks up, besides an Ok/Decent Month End Bond extensions for the EU Govies and Treasuries, there's something for all type of interest, which could provide some volatility.
  • It includes: Australian Retail Sales, German retail sales, Sweden GDP/Retail Sales, Turkey GDP, France/Spain/ Portugal prelim CPIs, Swiss GDP, Poland final GDP, German Regional/National CPIs, Canada GDP, US IJC, PCE core deflator, MNI Chicago PMI, and Japan Employment.

STIR: ECB Implied Rates Remain Within Recent Ranges

Feb-28 15:06

ECB implied rates have operated within recently observed ranges for the majority of the day, with OIS still pricing 93bps of cuts through the remainder of 2024.

  • Comments from the ECB's Kazaks were in line with his typical stance (r.e. warning against easing policy too early).
  • The Euribor strip is +1.0 to -1.5 ticks through the blues, recently coming under some light pressure alongside bonds.
  • Tomorrow's highlight will be the February flash inflation data from France (0745GMT), Spain (0800GMT) and Germany (1300GMT, with state-level data released from 0900GMT).
  • Our full inflation preview is here.


Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Mar-24 3.901 -0.4
Apr-24 3.834 -7.1
Jun-24 3.645 -26.0
Jul-24 3.495 -41.0
Sep-24 3.298 -60.7
Oct-24 3.140 -76.5
Dec-24 2.971 -93.4
Jan-25 2.838 -106.7
Source: MNI/Bloomberg

GILTS: Goldman Sachs: Shorter WAM Optimal For Gilts

Feb-28 14:54

Goldman Sachs note that “the maturity of UK debt is the highest in the G10 but has been falling in recent years.”

  • “The 3-10y maturities offer the best trade-off between low cost and acceptable volatility.”
  • “This suggests to us that the DMO will continue to skew issuance towards shorter maturities more than in the past - a point reinforced by the lower domestic demand for duration in the UK curve.”
  • “It also points to ongoing pressure on Gilts vs swaps in the belly of the UK curve.”