US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Daily Brief
May-11 12:29
- White House and Congressional negotiators will meet again today as they lay the groundwork for Friday's key debt limit meeting.
- JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Dimon has echoed warnings from analysts that the political dynamics make the current crisis more unpredictable than previous debt limit showdowns.
- Former President Donald Trump has complicated negotiations by suggesting Republicans should allow the government to default if the White House doesn’t promise “massive” spending cuts.
- Centrist Democrat Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) has made moves signalling he may make a third-party presidential bid.
- Former Vice President Mike Pence will make a decision about running for president by the end of June.
- The Financial Times has reported that there is “little chance” of a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu at the Shangri-La Dialogue in June.
- President Biden will welcome Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the White House for a state visit on June 22.
- Poll of the Day: Democrats are increasingly supportive of President Biden’s re-election bid but remain concerned about his age and the suitability of Vice President Kamala Harris.
Full article: US Daily Brief
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STIR: Latest SOFR Options
Apr-11 12:29
- 6,500 SFRU3 94.75/94.87/95.37/95.50 iron condors ref 95.30
- over 10,000 SFRJ3 95.25 calls
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - US Daily Brief
Apr-11 12:25
- The Biden Administration is grappling with the most significant leak of intelligence since the Snowden papers in 2013.
- President Biden is edging closer to a formal 2024 campaign launch: “I plan on running, but we’re not prepared to announce it yet.”
- Biden will depart today on a tour of the island of Ireland.
- House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) may be on “rocky ground” after releasing a report which appeared to deflect blame for the lack of a Republican FY24 budget onto his leadership team.
- China yesterday concluded three days of military exercises around Taiwan in response to the McCarthy-Tsai meeting in California last week.
- Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki will begin a three-day US trip today as Poland claims an increasingly influential position within the EU, militarily.
- The US and the Philippines will hold 2+2 talks in Washington today as the two countries launch an 18-day joint military exercise.
- The Biden administration has abandoned plans to conduct a formal review into the US-Saudi bilateral relationship.
- Poll of the Day: 82% of voters approve of Congress strengthening rules on banks to prevent a repeat of Silicon Valley Bank collapse.
Poll of the Day: US Daily Brief
US TSYS: What to Watch: Fed Speak Ahead Wed's CPI
Apr-11 12:13
- Volumes improved with London bank on-line -- but still moderate (TYM3 still under 280k) with many close to the sidelines ahead Wednesday's CPI (0.2% MoM est vs. 0.4% prior; 5.1% YoY est vs. 6.0% prior) and FOMC minutes for the March meeting.
- NatWest economists suspect weaker energy prices "should weigh on the headline CPI; we expect the earlier drop in energy prices should lead to about a 5% decline in gasoline component, while increases in food prices (0.3%) and the core CPI (0.434%) should not be too different than last month (0.452%)."
- No data today, participants will be headline watching ahead US Tsy $30B 3Y note auction at 1300ET.
- Fed speakers kicks off with Chicago Fed Goolsbee, moderated Q&A economics club Chicago w/text at 1330ET. Later in the evening, Philly Fed Harker gives economic outlook at Wharton (text, Q&A) at 1800ET, MN Fed Kashkari, town hall (moderated Q&A, no text) at 1930ET.
