MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Escalates Greenland Standoff

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Executive summary:

• US President Donald Trump is expected to return to the White House this evening after spending the weekend in Florida.
• Trump announced he intends to impose punitive tariffs on eight European countries for deploying troops to Greenland. According to Trump’s statement, a 10% tariff will be imposed on February 1, rising to 25% on June 1. Trump indicated that the tariffs would be removed if a deal for the purchase of Greenland is reached.
• Trump's emphasis on national security suggests he would again tap the International Emergency Economic Powers Act – the tariff authority currently being scrutinised by the Supreme Court.
• In response, Europe is considering a range of options, including delaying the US-EU tariff agreement and the deployment of its Anti-Coercion Instrument – a tool that could choke US big tech and other US business interests in the EU. 
• Trump announced that he intends to sue JPMorgan Chase for ‘debanking’ him. 
• The Pentagon has readied troops for potential deployment to Minnesota.  
• Former Federal Reserve Board member Kevin Warsh is now the favourite to take Trump’s nomination to serve as Fed Chair. Supreme Court justices will hear oral arguments on Wednesday on whether Trump can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage fraud accusations. 
• Trump may be positioning his 'Board of Peace' as an alternative to the UN Security Council.
• Poll of the Day: Voters believe it is Trump’s economy now.

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