US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Lawmakers Unveil New Ukraine/Border Plan
Feb-16 13:48
- Another confrontation between House Republican leadership and hardline GOP conservatives over Fiscal Year 2024 bills is expected to raise the risk of political instability in the coming weeks.
- A bipartisan group of moderate House Representatives have unveiled a proposal to fund Ukraine and reform policy at the US-Mexico border. The framework would strip all non-defence aid from the USD$95 billion Senate-passed bill and re-implement the Trump-era policy “Remain in Mexico.”
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to testify before Congressional panels on March 6 and 7.
- IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel told lawmakers yesterday that the IRS could implement a USD$78 billion bipartisan tax bill within a matter of weeks.
- The White House says a new Russian weapon does not pose an immediate threat to national security.
- President Biden again urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu against a largescale military operation in Rafah.
- At the Munich Security Conference, a US delegation led by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and VP Kamala Harris will be under scrutiny over Ukraine aid and former President Donald Trump's recent comment on NATO.
- Blinken will meet with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi today to lay the groundwork for a possible call between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- A New York judge yesterday confirmed that Trump's criminal trial in the 'hush money' case will begin on March 25, ensuring that Trump will face at least one jury before November's election.
- Poll of the Day: “Americans' economic outlook continues to improve, even if it still isn't great.”
Full article: US Daily Brief
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USD: BBDXY Hits Fresh '24 Highs On Retail Sales, Limited Follow Through
Jan-17 13:48
The broader USD initially rallies on the back of the comfortably firmer-than-expected round of U.S. retail sales data, registering a fresh YtD best in the process.
- The measure has breached its 50- & 200-DMAs in the last couple of sessions and an extension higher would target the 50% retracement of the Oct-Dec ’23 sell off (1,243.97). That retracement marker provides initial resistance in front of a string of December intraday highs.
- A move away from post-data session highs in Tsy yields limits follow through, seeing the BBDXY back from best levels.
- A reminder that the USD benefitted from Fed Governor Waller’s remarks on Tuesday (hawkish vs. market pricing) and broader risk aversion (punctuated by a heavy sell off in Chinese equities). This data adds another leg of support to the greenback, with positioning also a likely, albeit unsubstantial, supportive factor.
US TSYS: Post Retail Sales React, Tsys Gap Lower
Jan-17 13:42
- Treasury futures extending lows after higher than expected Retail Sales (0.6% vs. 0.4% est, 0.3% prior), March'24 10Y futures fall to 111-11 low (-16) -- focus on initial technical support at 111-06+ (Low Jan 05), followed by 111-02+ (50-day EMA).
- 10Y climbs to 4.1114% high. Curves bear flatten: 2Y10Y -6.690 at -23.295.
- Meanwhile, Import/Export index come out higher (0.0% vs. -0.5% est) / lower (-0.9% vs. -0.7% est) respectively.
- Projected rate hikes for first half of 2024 recede slightly: January 2024 cumulative -.6bp at 5.323%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -58.2% w/ cumulative of -15.2bp at 5.177%, May 2024 chance of cut slips to -90.7%, cumulative -37.8bp at 4.950%. June 2024 cut still in play, cumulative -64.1bp at 4.687%. Fed terminal at 5.32% in Feb'24.
MNI: CANADA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRICES -1.5% MOM; EX-ENERGY -0.6%
Jan-17 13:31
- MNI: CANADA DEC INDUSTRIAL PRICES -1.5% MOM; EX-ENERGY -0.6%
- CANADA DEC RAW MATERIALS PRICES -4.9% MOM; EX-ENERGY -1.7%
