MNI POLITICAL RISK - Bessent Spikes Optimism For US-China Thaw

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Executive summary:

• US President Donald Trump will meet newly minted Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for an extended bilateral meeting today, on his two-day stopover in Tokyo between the ASEAN and APEC summits.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a deal to extend the tariff truce and keep rare earths flowing when they meet on Thursday.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Japan's USD$550 billion investment framework will focus on energy, electricity, and national security.
• Trump secured “Agreements on Reciprocal Trade” with Malaysia and Cambodia and reached framework agreements with Thailand and Vietnam. US and Brazilian trade negotiators are expected to meet today.
• Markets are braced for a 'big tech' earnings and the FOMC's next rate decision. Bessent has whittled his shortlist of Fed Chair candidates down to five, with NEC Director Kevin Hassett the bookmakers' favourite.  
• The US government shutdown is expected to extend until at least mid-November, with Republicans and Democrats dug in on their respective positions.
• Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will force votes this week on three bills relating to tariffs. 
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy still wants long-range missiles, despite Trump's oil sanctions.
• Trump is imposing an addtional 10% tariff on Canadian exports in response to a television ad.
• Trump’s USD$40 billion bet on Argentine President Javier Milei appears to have paid off. 
• Senate Democrats will force a vote to block military strikes on Venezuela 
• Poll of the Day: A new fault line in American politics may be emerging. 

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