MNI Norges Review: Jan '26 - “Special Attention” On Inflation

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.00% as unanimously expected. Key guidance was unchanged relative to December.  As such, there was minimal market reaction in NOK FX and rates.
• The Committee’s Monetary Policy Assessment noted that “special attention” was given to still-elevated inflation. While not surprising given CPI-ATE is still above 3.0% Y/Y, it confirms the Board’s cautious approach to easing.
• Although the December MPR rate path leant in favour of 2x25bp cuts this year, verbal guidance remains that it is consistent with “one to two rate cuts in the course of 2026”.
• There remains a wide range of analyst easing expectations for 2026.