MNI Norges Bank Preview: June 2026

Hawkish Tone To Be Maintained

Hidden PDF

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• Norges Bank is expected to hold rates at 4.25% on Thursday. Since hiking in May, domestic data have reduced the pressure on the Board to deliver a follow-up as soon as June, particular with the deposit rate already in restrictive territory.
• That said, the Board is likely to maintain a hawkish-leaning tone, owing to still-elevated underlying inflation pressures and wage growth relative to productivity. That keeps an H2 hike in play, with particular focus on the implied probability the updated MPR rate path assigns to such a move. 
• Analysts are unanimous in expecting rates to be held at 4.25% in June, with the overall tone of the meeting generally expected to be hawkish. A number of analysts expect the end-2026 rate path to be revised up above 4.40% (vs 4.35% at present).