MNI NBP WATCH: Rates Held At 3.75% Amid Iran War Uncertainty

The National Bank of Poland left its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 3.75% as expected on Wednesday, citing geopolitical uncertainty.

"Amidst tense geopolitical situation (sic) the outlook for global activity and inflation worsened and continues to be subject to uncertainty," the Bank said in a press release.

Flash estimates show CPI inflation increased to 3.2% in April from 3.0% in March, mainly stemming from higher annual growth in fuel prices, it noted.

"Considering the Statistics Poland preliminary data, it can be estimated that in April 2026 also core inflation increased."

The Bank repeated verbatim its April guidance that future monetary policy decisions are influenced by "changes in macroeconomic situation abroad, including changes in global commodity prices and inflation, amid geopolitical context.” (See MNI INTERVIEW: NBP May Hike This Year- Ex-MPC's Hardt)

It said that risk factors for the inflation outlook include fiscal policy, fuel price regulation, changes in economic growth or wage growth. (See MNI INTERVIEW: Defence Spend Shrinks Polish Fiscal Space-Toroj)

"Data available since the beginning of 2026, taken together, signal that annual GDP growth in 2026 Q1 most probably slowed down," it said, adding that annual wage growth and employment in the enterprise sector fell in Q1.