MNI NBP Review - May 2026: Hawkish Tilt

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP left interest rates unchanged, but messaging became more hawkish.
• Governor Glapiński admitted that the probability of a hike increased since April.
• Interest rates could be raised in case of an actual or projected target overshoot.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left interest rates unchanged, but the tone of communication shifted to the hawkish side. Although Governor Adam Glapiński reiterated that the current shock is very much unlike the one in 2022 and insisted that Poland is well positioned to weather any challenges ahead, he opened the door for future rate hikes should inflation overshoot the +1.5-3.5% Y/Y tolerance band or was projected to do so over the medium term. Repeated assertions that interest-rate hikes are ‘likely’, even if not a foregone conclusion, stood in contrast with messaging at the April press conference where the Governor effectively ruled them out. While he refused to make any firm commitments, he conceded that the probability of monetary tightening increased, and the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) was ready to take action if needed.