MNI NBP Preview - Sep 2026: Snapback To Cautious Stance

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Executive Summary:

• The NBP is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged this week.
• Inflation accelerated on the back of renewed tensions in the Middle East.
• Messaging is bound to become more cautious, in a reversal of dovish July rhetoric.

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) will almost certainly leave the reference rate unchanged at 3.75%, despite Governor Adam Glapiński’s suggestion in July that he could table a motion to implement a cut. During the summer months, headline inflation accelerated on the back of escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and the expiry of temporary fuel relief measures. At the same time, the risks to the medium-term inflation outlook are tilted to the upside amid growing concerns that favourable trends in food prices will eventually reverse, as well as repeated delays to fiscal consolidation, and still robust wage growth.