MNI NBP Preview - May 2026: Cautious Wait-And-See

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Executive Summary:

• Unanimous consensus looks for a cautious on-hold decision.
• April CPI surprised to the upside and the tone of comms has turned more hawkish.
• The NBP is seen as having some space to wait and observe the impact of the Iran war.

Polish rate-setters are widely expected to stand their ground and leave the key rate unchanged, maintaining their cautious ‘wait-and-see’ approach as geopolitical developments keep global energy commodity prices elevated. Incoming data revealed intensifying and broadening price pressures in the domestic economy, while the latest rounds of NBP communications signalled a gradual but evident hawkish shift in sentiment. However, inflation remains within the central bank’s tolerance band for now, while favourable starting conditions put the NBP in a comfortable position to weather the supply-side shock without taking any rushed decisions. With little potential for an imminent policy adjustment, the focus will be on accompanying rhetoric. Governor Adam Glapiński may deploy cautious messaging, while keeping all options open.