MNI Global Week Ahead - US Labour Market Data Headlines
MNI (LONDON) - See below for the key events in Developed and Emerging Markets next week:
Developed Markets
WEDNESDAY - Australia Q3 GDP
Australian Q3 GDP prints on Wednesday December 4 and data released to date is positive. Investment inputs into the national accounts have improved with construction work done up 1.6% q/q and private capex +1.1% q/q. Real retail sales rose 0.5% q/q after contracting the previous two quarters but the services part of household consumption remains unclear. Q3 inventories are released on December 2 and net exports and government spending on Tuesday and these are likely to impact GDP forecasts if materially different from expectations.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Q3 Final GDP
The final estimate of Eurozone Q3 GDP is expected to be confirmed at 0.4% Q/Q, above the ECB’s September projection of 0.2% Q/Q. This will be the first opportunity to see the expenditure, production and income breakdowns of GDP. The ECB projected domestic demand (consumption, investment and government spending) to contribute 0.2pp to quarterly GDP in Q3, with net exports subtracting 0.1pp and inventories adding 0.1pp. Additionally, details on the GDP deflator and its components will be released. In the September projections, the ECB projected Q2 deflator growth at 3.2% Y/Y and Q3 growth at 3.1% Y/Y. However, the actual Q2 GDP deflator rose 3.0% Y/Y, suggesting there may be mechanical downside risks to the Q3 projection. Overall, the data is not expected to be a major needle mover for the ECB ahead of its December 12 meeting, but the details will be an important component of the December projection round and the assessment of policy into 2025.
FRIDAY - US November Labour Market Data
The nonfarm payrolls report for November headlines the US macro calendar next week. Markets price 16.5bp of cuts for the Dec 18 FOMC decision having pulled back from what was a 50/50 call between another 25bp cut or pausing. The October report was far weaker than expected with payrolls growth of just 12k (which would have been -46k with a more typical seasonal factor). It did however leave many questions, with a large one being the extent of the impact from powerful hurricanes. State payrolls data have since shown some declines in those hurricane-impacted states but not enough to fully account for the surprise weakness. One of the main concerns from the October report was the exceptionally low response rate (lowest since 1991) which leaves scope for large revisions. Early days for the analyst survey sees the unemployment rate lifting to 4.2% but that really doesn’t take much from a 4.145% in October. Recall that the unemployment rate lurching to 4.25% back in July likely played a large role in the FOMC starting its easing cycle with a 50bp cut in September, although it has since stabilized somewhat with a latest three-month average of 4.14%. There’s a good chance of undershooting the median FOMC forecast of 4.4% for 4Q24, after a sharp upward revision in the September SEP vs the prior 4.0% forecast from June.
FRIDAY - Canada November Labour Market Data
Friday’s November labour force survey is the last major release ahead of the next BoC decision on Dec 11. The decision is seen closer to a 50/50 call between a second 50bp cut or shifting back to a 25bp clip, with 36bp of cuts priced after soft latest momentum in GDP data vs 33bp prior and less than 30bps after Trudeau’s fiscal stimulus package. Focus should be on the unemployment rate again for a gauge of broader labour market slack. The unemployment rate surprisingly held at 6.49% for a second consecutive month back in October vs then-consensus of 6.6% but the prime-age rate increased to new recent highs and overall employment growth surprised softer. Analyst forecasts for the release haven’t been submitted yet at the time of typing but we see some risk the overall unemployment rate drifts higher as there’s an overhang from recent strength in working age population growth that hasn’t yet fed into the labour force.
Emerging Markets
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
The National Bank of Poland will leave interest rates unchanged at its final meeting of 2024, having effectively ruled out policy action until the publication of the next inflation projection in March 2025. Despite the anticipated further flare-up in price growth around the turn of the year, inflation is expected to normalise later in 2025, fuelling the ongoing debate on the optimal timing for rate cuts. Comments from Governor Glapinski will be scrutinised for fresh insights on the implications of the government's now confirmed decisions surrounding administered energy prices.
FRIDAY - RBI Decision (India)
The Reserve Bank of India (“RBI”) meets for its final monetary policy decision of the year next week on December 06. At the most recent meeting on October 09, the RBI remained on hold at 6.50%, where it has remained since February 2023. The RBI has an inflation target of 4% (with a =/- 2% tolerance) and the October CPI print was above the 6% upper threshold at 6.12%, primarily due to seasonality and one-off weather-related factors. Other data (PMIs, exports, industrial production) has been robust, although Q3 GDP was below consensus expectations at 5.4% Y/Y (vs 6.5% cons, 6.7% prior). The RBI has come under scrutiny over its use of FX reserves to dampen volatility in the currency. Having hit an all time high of US$705bn in September, the latest release has seen FX reserves decline to US$658 in defence of the currency. The INR is weaker by -0.60% in the last three months whereas it’s Asian peers are down 1.5%-4%. Given the strength of the economic backdrop, and a stable currency there appears no reason for the RBI to cut rates next week. Markets have priced in 35bps of cuts over the next 3 months, but with very little of that pricing focused on next week’s meeting. We do not expect any change from the RBI as they look ahead to 2025 and await to see the trade landscape under the new Trump administration.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 30/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 30/11/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** |  CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 |  AU | Business Indicators | |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | * |  AU | Building Approvals |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Retail Trade |
| 02/12/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Manufacturing PMI |
| 02/12/2024 | 0730/0830 | ** |  CH | Retail Sales |
| 02/12/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | *** |  IT | GDP (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |
| 02/12/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Final) |
| 02/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Unemployment |
| 02/12/2024 | 1000/1100 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde in EIB Group Climate Council | |
| 02/12/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  US | S&P Global Manufacturing Index (final) |
| 02/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  US | ISM Manufacturing Index |
| 02/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | * |  US | Construction Spending |
| 02/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 02/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 02/12/2024 | 2015/1515 |  US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 02/12/2024 | 2130/1630 |  US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 03/12/2024 | 0001/0001 | * |  GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 03/12/2024 | 0030/1130 |  AU | Balance of Payments: Current Account | |
| 03/12/2024 | 0700/0200 | * |  TR | Turkey CPI |
| 03/12/2024 | 0730/0830 | *** |  CH | CPI |
| 03/12/2024 | 0800/0900 |  EU | ECB's Cipollone at GeoEconomy Talk | |
| 03/12/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 03/12/2024 | - | *** |  US | Domestic-Made Vehicle Sales |
| 03/12/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** |  US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 03/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 03/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 03/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * |  US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 03/12/2024 | 1735/1235 |  US | Fed Governor Adriana Kugler | |
| 03/12/2024 | 1830/1330 |  US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 03/12/2024 | 2045/1545 |  US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 04/12/2024 | 2200/0900 | * |  AU | S&P Global Final Australia Services PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Final Australia Composite PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | *** |  AU | Quarterly GDP |
| 04/12/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Services PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 0030/0930 | ** |  JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Services PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 0145/0945 | ** |  CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0850/0950 | ** |  FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0900/1000 |  EU | ECB's Cipollone speech on behavioural financial regulations | |
| 04/12/2024 | 0900/0900 |  GB | BOE's Bailey keynote interview at the FT Boardroom | |
| 04/12/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 0930/0930 | *** |  GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | PPI |
| 04/12/2024 | 1000/1000 | ** |  GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 04/12/2024 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 04/12/2024 | 1315/0815 | *** |  US | ADP Employment Report |
| 04/12/2024 | 1330/1430 |  EU | ECB's Lagarde statement at ECON hearing | |
| 04/12/2024 | 1345/0845 |  US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 04/12/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 04/12/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 04/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** |  US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 04/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** |  US | Factory New Orders |
| 04/12/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** |  US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 04/12/2024 | 1845/1345 |  US | Fed Chair Jerome Powell | |
| 04/12/2024 | 1900/1400 |  US | Fed Beige Book | |
| 05/12/2024 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Trade Balance |
| 05/12/2024 | 0645/0745 | ** |  CH | Unemployment |
| 05/12/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 05/12/2024 | 0700/0800 |  SE | Flash CPI | |
| 05/12/2024 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/12/2024 | 0800/0900 | ** |  ES | Industrial Production |
| 05/12/2024 | 0830/0930 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 05/12/2024 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 05/12/2024 | 0930/0930 |  GB | DMP Data | |
| 05/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | ** |  EU | Retail Sales |
| 05/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** |  US | Jobless Claims |
| 05/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | Trade Balance |
| 05/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | ** |  US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 05/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | * |  CA | Ivey PMI |
| 05/12/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** |  US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 05/12/2024 | 1700/1700 |  GB | BOE's Greene panellist at the FT Boardroom "global economics: what is the path to sustained growth?" | |
| 06/12/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | average wages (p) |
| 06/12/2024 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | Household spending |
| 06/12/2024 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Industrial Production |
| 06/12/2024 | 0700/0700 | * |  GB | Halifax House Price Index |
| 06/12/2024 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Foreign Trade |
| 06/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | * |  EU | Employment |
| 06/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | * |  IT | Retail Sales |
| 06/12/2024 | 1000/1100 | *** |  EU | GDP (final) |
| 06/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** |  US | Employment Report |
| 06/12/2024 | 1330/0830 | *** |  CA | Labour Force Survey |
| 06/12/2024 | 1415/0915 |  US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 06/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** |  US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 06/12/2024 | 1530/1030 |  US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 06/12/2024 | 1700/1200 |  US | BOE's Greene at Financial Times Live | |
| 06/12/2024 | 1700/1200 |  US | Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack | |
| 06/12/2024 | 1800/1300 |  US | San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly | |
| 06/12/2024 | 2000/1500 | * |  US | Consumer Credit |
