MNI Global Week Ahead: US Inflation, Warsh, BoC and China GDP
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
Developed Markets
TUESDAY / WEDNESDAY - US CPI / PPI
The June CPI report is expected to see the headline index fall on the month as energy prices drop circa 5% in seasonally adjusted terms after some particularly strong increases earlier in the US-Iran conflict. Core CPI meanwhile is expected to maintain a very similar monthly pace to May, with our latest estimate of the median analyst looking for 0.21% M/M in June after the same 0.21% M/M in May. A wedge to core PCE could be maintained, with analysts at this stage tentatively looking for a ~0.27% M/M translation to core PCE albeit likely to see revisions after both Tuesday’s CPI and Wednesday’s PPI reports. Some of that wedge comes from financial services expected to increase at a strong pace June, a key PPI component (for now, with the BEA set to alter PCE input data as part of broader methodological adjustments in September). With a communication-light Fed emerging under new Chair Warsh, these inflation releases will be even more of a key input into Fed rate expectations with a hike currently priced for the October meeting.
TUESDAY - Fed Chair Warsh House Testimony
Kevin Warsh will participate in his first semi-annual monetary policy testimony as Fed Chair on Tuesday (House Financial Services Commitee) and Wednesday (Senate Banking Committee) July 14-15 (beginning 10am ET for each). This usually isn't a blockbuster event for policy revelations and of course, Warsh is very unlikely to provide much in the way of a steer on rates in either direction, reiterating that he doesn't believe in forward guidance. But he was emphatic in his first FOMC press conference in June that the Fed was committed to price stability and it would be surprising if he watered down that message next week, though it is interesting that he will be testifying just hours after the June CPI release which could provide more lines of questioning. In his April nomination hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, Warsh was non-committal on several matters including on future Communications strategy and the Balance Sheet, and it's likely he will speak next week about the five "task forces" set up to look at such issues and defer to them. He will also certainly be queried on the Fed's independence, and he will probably respond once again with saying that such independence is "critical" and that he doesn't take any guidance from the Trump administration.
WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision
The Bank of Canada is firmly expected to announce on Wednesday that it has held the overnight rate at 2.25% for a 6th consecutive meeting. The last two meetings in April and June concluded with the BOC eyeing two-sided risks to rates, with potential for "consecutive" hikes if higher energy prices bleed into broader and more persistent inflation pressures, or some easing possible particularly if US trade relations deteriorate meaningfully. Since the June decision, risks in both directions appear to have abated, with oil prices pulling back after the US and Iran reached a nascent ceasefire deal, and Q2 economic activity and labour market data solidifying even as core inflation has remained tame. Gov Macklem and the policy statement may acknowledge those developments, while reiterating a wait-and-see stance and the possible need to be "nimble" on policy depending on how risk scenarios play out. The updated quarterly Monetary Policy Report is likely to show a downgraded 2026 GDP projection given a substantially below-expected Q1 GDP print, and higher inflation given a pickup in oil prices after April's report publication, but it's unlikely that the medium-term outlook sees meaningful changes. Overall, the market's slight bias toward the BOC's next move being a hike rather than a cut is likely to remain intact.
FRIDAY - Eurozone Final HICP Inflation For June
Final Eurozone inflation data for June has more scope for revisions than usual due Eurostat having estimated Dutch figures before their delayed national release. The Eurozone flash reading came in at 2.80% Y/Y, below consensus of 3.0% and slowing from 3.17% in May. There is scope for a downward revision after the Netherlands HICP was notably softer than consensus at 2.46% Y/Y (3.1% cons, 3.40% prior) - but this was not included in Eurostat's initial calculation, and it's unclear how they estimated the Dutch figures. Using our tracking methodology would make a Dutch 2.88% Y/Y print consistent with the overall Eurozone figure. However, the 2.46% realised print from the statistics office would imply roughly a 0.02pp lower contribution to Eurozone headline.
FRIDAY - UK's Burnham Special Leadership Conference
Nominations opened on 9 July for the contest to be the next leader of the governing centre-left Labour Party. The nominations period among MPs closes at 18:00BST on Wednesday, 15 July but candidates require at least three affiliated socialist societies/trade unions to nominate them alongside the minimum 81 MPs. Burnham has already received the official backing of 322/403. This means it would require any additional candidate to secure the backing of every single one of the remaining 81 MPs - some of whom have pledged support to Burnham despite not backing him officially yet - making it almost mathematically impossible for a challenge. The affiliate nomination process closes at 18:00BST on Thursday, 16 July. When confirmed the only candidate is Burnham, a special leadership conference will be held on Friday, 17 July, at which point he will become leader of the Labour Party. Outgoing PM Sir Keir Starmer will remain in 10 Downing Street until the formal exchange of power on Monday, 20 July, when Starmer resigns, and King Charles III invites Burnham to form a gov't.
The main question for markets is who will form Burnham's cabinet, and in particular, who will be the Chancellor of the Exchequer? There has been little to no communication from the Burnham camp on who could take up the position. Political prediction markets continue to view former Labour leader and current Secretary of State for Energy and Net Zero Ed Miliband as the strong favourite. The Times reported last week that, rather than drip-feeding his cabinet picks during the next week, or even in the period following his confirmation as Labour leader, Burnham could keep all identities secret until he becomes PM. As the report notes, "The PM in waiting's planned 'one and done' announcement has created fears in Whitehall of a political vacuum".
Emerging Markets
MNI CEEMEA Week Ahead Hidden PDF
MNI LatAm Week Ahead Hidden PDF
WEDNESDAY - China Q2 GDP
China will release its Q2 Gross Domestic Product data on Wednesday along with June industrial production, retail sales, property and fixed-asset investment figures. Market consensus expects annual GDP growth to cool to +4.5% YoY, down from +5.0% expansion recorded in Q1. This keeps the economy within arm's reach of its annual "4.5%–5.0%" official growth target. High-tech manufacturing, green tech, and robust exports of AI-related hardware continue to anchor the economy. This resilience prompted institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Fitch Ratings to lift full-year 2026 growth forecasts to 4.6%. However, this strength directly clashes with weak consumer spending and a lingering housing slump. June's retail sales data will reveal whether mid-year promotions moved the needle. Early indicators point to soft household confidence, making private consumption the biggest drag on the Q2 print and has prompted further government support. Whilst unlikely, a surprise print below +4.5% would amplify market calls for Beijing to deploy more targeted fiscal actions, accelerate special treasury bond issuance, or introduce fresh monetary easing measures via the PBOC.
THURSDAY - BOK Decision (Korea)
The BOK meets next Thursday and it is widely expected to break its 14-month pause and raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. Governor Shin explicitly stated that "the steps we should be taking going forward are clear," emphasizing that prolonged above-target inflation and robust economic growth warrant immediate policy tightening. Unlike early 2026 supply-side shocks from global energy costs, South Korean inflation is now experiencing a structural shift. Massive semiconductor performance bonuses (from giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix) alongside a surging KOSPI stock market have greatly boosted household assets and consumption, with the risk being that inflation becomes entrenched. A rate rise would be a step forward in combating inflation but also help to support the struggling Won. Long held concerns about the overheated property market would be met with a rate rise also. A rate rise in July is consensus and we see the growing likelihood for 1-2 further rate rises this year.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 13/07/2026 | 0925/0525 |  US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 13/07/2026 | - | *** |  CN | Money Supply |
| 13/07/2026 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 13/07/2026 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 13/07/2026 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 13/07/2026 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 13/07/2026 | 1630/1230 | US | Fed Governor Christopher Waller | |
| 13/07/2026 | 1645/1845 |  EU | ECB Schnabel Keynote and Panel, Munster | |
| 13/07/2026 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/07/2026 | 1800/1900 |  GB | BOE Pill Speech on FinReg/Innovation/Growth | |
| 14/07/2026 | 2301/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 14/07/2026 | 0430/1330 | ** |  JP | Industrial Production |
| 14/07/2026 | 0600/0800 | * |  DE | Wholesale Prices |
| 14/07/2026 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 14/07/2026 | - | *** | CN | Trade |
| 14/07/2026 | 1215/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 14/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 14/07/2026 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 14/07/2026 | 1400/1000 | US | Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh | |
| 14/07/2026 | 1640/1240 | US | Fed Governor Michael Barr | |
| 14/07/2026 | 1730/1330 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 14/07/2026 | 1855/1455 | US | Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman | |
| 14/07/2026 | 2000/1600 | ** | US | TICS |
| 14/07/2026 | 2000/2100 | GB | BOE Bailey Speech at Annual Financial and Professional Services Dinner | |
| 14/07/2026 | - |  CA | Bank of Canada Meeting | |
| 15/07/2026 | 2350/0850 | * | JP | Machinery orders |
| 15/07/2026 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | GDP |
| 15/07/2026 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Fixed-Asset Investment |
| 15/07/2026 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Retail Sales |
| 15/07/2026 | 0200/1000 | *** | CN | Industrial Output |
| 15/07/2026 | 0200/1000 | ** | CN | Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M |
| 15/07/2026 | 0600/0800 | *** |  SE | Final Inflation Report |
| 15/07/2026 | 0700/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 15/07/2026 | 0900/1100 | ** | EU | EZ Industrial Production |
| 15/07/2026 | 0900/0500 | * | CA | CREA Existing Home Sales |
| 15/07/2026 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ GDP 4th (Final) |
| 15/07/2026 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 15/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 15/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 15/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 15/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Empire State Manufacturing Survey |
| 15/07/2026 | 1245/0845 | US | New York Fed's John Williams | |
| 15/07/2026 | 1345/0945 | *** | CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 15/07/2026 | 1430/1030 | CA | BOC press conference | |
| 15/07/2026 | 1700/1300 | US | Fed Governor Lisa Cook | |
| 15/07/2026 | 2230/1830 | US | St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem | |
| 16/07/2026 | 0600/0700 | ** | GB | UK Trade Balance |
| 16/07/2026 | 0600/0700 | *** | GB | UK Short-Term Activity Indicators |
| 16/07/2026 | 0800/1000 | ** |  IT | Italy Final HICP |
| 16/07/2026 | 0900/1100 | * | EU | Trade Balance |
| 16/07/2026 | 0900/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 16/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Retail Sales |
| 16/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | USDA-FAS Weekly Export Sales |
| 16/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 16/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
| 16/07/2026 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 16/07/2026 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Business Inventories |
| 16/07/2026 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | NAHB Home Builder Index |
| 16/07/2026 | 1630/1230 | US | Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan | |
| 16/07/2026 | 1725/1325 | US | Kansas City Fed's Jeff Schmid | |
| 16/07/2026 | 2300/1900 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 17/07/2026 | 0800/1000 | ** | EU | EZ Current Account |
| 17/07/2026 | 0900/1100 | *** | EU | EZ HICP Final |
| 17/07/2026 | 1000/1200 | EU | ECB Cipollone Lecture on Digital Euro | |
| 17/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Housing Starts |
| 17/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | International Canadian Transaction in Securities |
| 17/07/2026 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | Import/Export Price Index |
| 17/07/2026 | 1315/0915 | *** | US | Industrial Production |
| 17/07/2026 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | UMich Surveys of Consumers |
