MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and UK Labour Market Data

Nov-10 21:03By: Emil Lundh

MNI (LONDON) - THROUGH THE WEEK - China Economic Data

Next week's data will give an overview as to whether the impacts of the stimulus are beginning to filter through to the economic data. October inflation data is due on Saturday, with CPI growth forecast to remain at 0.4% Y/Y. During the week, aggregate financing YTD and new yuan denominated loans will give a snapshot of demand for credit, a measure of individuals and company's willingness to invest given the outlook for the economy. With the raft of stimulus measures announced thus far being predominantly focused on the property sector and; the encouraging data out on new home sales; it is anticipated that both of these releases will be strong and current surveys suggest a meaningful increase. Of interest also will be new and used home prices month on month. There has been a multi year decline for the property sector and with buyers emerging post stimulus, chances are we may start to see some form of bounce for property prices. The other two key data releases will be industrial production and retail sales.

TUESDAY - UK September/October Labour Market Data

UK labour market data remains in focus despite the MPC noting that it favours a “gradual” cutting cycle. The latest MPR forecast looks for private sector regular AWE to come in at 4.75%Y/Y in the 3-months to September, a little below the 4.83%Y/Y forecast it made 3-months prior), but a little above the 4.7% Bloomberg consensus and August print of 4.73%. This is the key figure in our view, with public sector pay (and total pay) a more lagging indicator. The unemployment rate is forecast at 4.168% by the BOE (4.1% Bloomberg consensus), 3.99% in August. Given the volatility (and unreliability) of the LFS data, we don’t place too much weight on the unemployment rate, but we do think there is a potential for a decent market move if pay data surprises either higher or lower.

WEDNESDAY - US October CPI

Wednesday’s CPI inflation report for October headlines the US macro calendar next week. Consensus looks for core CPI inflation of 0.3% M/M after again surprising higher than expected with 0.31% M/M in September. Initial unrounded estimates that we’ve seen suggest this is expected to be a “genuine” 0.3 print with an early average a little above 0.30%. Used cars are expected to provide a sizeable boost. Shelter is expected to hold onto much of its latest moderation although it remains at rates that are above pre-pandemic norms. Core services ex-housing will again be watched having surprised higher than any estimate we’d seen for September but in a move driven by CPI-specific categories that didn’t fully translate into core PCE and limited the market reaction. PPI follows on Thursday and could have important core PCE implications. With Fed Funds currently pricing about 17bp of cuts for the December decision, we expect sensitivity to surprises in either direction although labor data arguably remains in the driving seat for now.

THURSDAY – Eurozone Preliminary (Second) Q3 GDP Reading

The preliminary (second) reading of Eurozone Q3 GDP is due on Thursday. Sequential quarterly GDP growth is expected to be unchanged from the advance reading of 0.4% Q/Q (which was above the ECB’s 0.2% projection from September). As such, more interest will lie in the employment growth and real productivity metrics. The ECB project employment growth at 0.1% Q/Q and real productivity per employee growth at 0.2% Q/Q. If realised, this would be the first positive sequential productivity reading in six quarters. However, we note that productivity surprised the ECB to the downside in Q1 and Q2. A recovery in productivity growth underpins the ECB’s forecast for easing unit labour costs through 2026. Such a dynamic is a pre-requisite for further disinflation in services HICP, which has been sticky around 4% Y/Y throughout 2024.

THURSDAY - Banxico Decision (Mexico)

Most analysts expect Banxico to deliver another 25bp cut in November, taking the overnight rate to 10.25%. With the balance of risks to growth remaining biased to the downside and the most recent vote split shifting in a dovish direction, the continuation of a gradual easing cycle appears most likely at this juncture. However, a hawkish surprise cannot be completely ruled out amid stubborn headline inflation and significant MXN volatility in recent weeks.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
09/11/2024	0130/0930	***	CN	CPI
09/11/2024	0130/0930	***	CN	Producer Price Index
09/11/2024	1525/1625		EU	ECB's Lagarde in Climate risks event
11/11/2024	0500/1400		JP	Economy Watchers Survey
11/11/2024	0700/0800	***	NO	CPI Norway
11/11/2024	-	***	CN	Money Supply
11/11/2024	-	***	CN	New Loans
11/11/2024	-	***	CN	Social Financing
11/11/2024	-		GB	DMO quarterly investors/GEMM consultation
12/11/2024	0700/0800	***	DE	HICP (f)
12/11/2024	0700/0700	***	GB	Labour Market Survey
12/11/2024	0900/0900		GB	BOE's Pill panellist at UBS conference on Reversing tightening
12/11/2024	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Conditions Index
12/11/2024	1000/1100	***	DE	ZEW Current Expectations Index
12/11/2024	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
12/11/2024	1100/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
12/11/2024	1200/1200		GB	Asset Purchase Facility Quarterly Report
12/11/2024	1330/0830	*	CA	Building Permits
12/11/2024	1400/1500		EU	ECB's Cipollone chairing policy panel on financial sanctions
12/11/2024	1500/1000		US	Fed Governor Christopher Waller
12/11/2024	1515/1015		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
12/11/2024	1600/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
12/11/2024	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
12/11/2024	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
12/11/2024	1800/1300	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
12/11/2024	1900/1400		US	Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari
12/11/2024	2130/1630		US	New York Fed's Roberto Perli
12/11/2024	2200/1700		US	Philly Fed's Pat Harker
13/11/2024	0030/1130	***	AU	Quarterly wage price index
13/11/2024	0945/0945		GB	BOE's Mann at Female Central Bankers panel
13/11/2024	1000/1100	**	EU	Industrial Production
13/11/2024	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
13/11/2024	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
13/11/2024	1330/0830	***	US	CPI
13/11/2024	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
13/11/2024	1445/0945		US	Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan
13/11/2024	1800/1300		US	St. Louis Fed's Alberto Musalem
13/11/2024	1830/1330		US	Kansas City Fed's Jeffrey Schmid
13/11/2024	1900/1400	**	US	Treasury Budget
14/11/2024	0030/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
14/11/2024	0700/0800	***	SE	Inflation Report
14/11/2024	0800/0900	***	ES	HICP (f)
14/11/2024	0830/0930		EU	ECB's De Guindos remarks at event organised by ABC and Deloitte
14/11/2024	1000/1100	***	EU	GDP (p)
14/11/2024	1200/0700		US	Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
14/11/2024	1230/1330		EU	Publication of the ECB MonPol meeting account
14/11/2024	-		GB	Rachel Reeves’ debut Mansion House dinner speech as chancellor
14/11/2024	1300/1300		GB	BOE's Mann at Revitalising the global economy event
14/11/2024	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
14/11/2024	1330/0830	***	US	PPI
14/11/2024	1415/0915		US	Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin
14/11/2024	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
14/11/2024	1600/1100	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
14/11/2024	1830/1930		EU	ECB's Schnabel in panel on "Reassessing policy tools"
14/11/2024	1900/1400	***	MX	Mexico Interest Rate
14/11/2024	2000/1500		US	Fed Chair Jerome Powell
14/11/2024	2100/2100		GB	BOE's Bailey speech at Mansion House
14/11/2024	2115/1615		US	New York Fed's John Williams
15/11/2024	2350/0850	***	JP	Japan GDP 1st Estimate
15/11/2024	0200/1000	***	CN	Fixed-Asset Investment
15/11/2024	0200/1000	***	CN	Retail Sales
15/11/2024	0200/1000	***	CN	Industrial Output
15/11/2024	0200/1000	**	CN	Surveyed Unemployment Rate M/M
15/11/2024	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
15/11/2024	0700/0800	**	SE	Unemployment
15/11/2024	0700/0700	**	GB	UK Monthly GDP
15/11/2024	0700/0700	***	GB	GDP First Estimate
15/11/2024	0700/0700	**	GB	Index of Services
15/11/2024	0700/0700	***	GB	Index of Production
15/11/2024	0700/0700	**	GB	Output in the Construction Industry
15/11/2024	0700/0700	**	GB	Trade Balance
15/11/2024	0730/0730		GB	DMO to publish FQ4 (Jan-Mar) gilt operations calendar
15/11/2024	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
15/11/2024	0800/0900	*	CH	CH Flash GDP
15/11/2024	0900/1000	**	IT	Italy Final HICP
15/11/2024	1330/0830	**	US	Import/Export Price Index
15/11/2024	1330/0830	**	CA	Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
15/11/2024	1330/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
15/11/2024	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
15/11/2024	1330/0830	***	US	Retail Sales
15/11/2024	1330/0830	**	US	Empire State Manufacturing Survey
15/11/2024	1400/0900	*	CA	CREA Existing Home Sales
15/11/2024	1415/0915	***	US	Industrial Production
15/11/2024	1500/1000	*	US	Business Inventories
15/11/2024	1500/1600		EU	ECB's Lane at seminar on Fragmenting Trading System
15/11/2024	1515/1615		EU	ECB's Cipollone in discussion on productivity