MNI Global Week Ahead - US CPI and ECB Watchers Conf
See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:
SUNDAY / THROUGH THE WEEK - China February Inflation and New Loans
China is set to release February PPI and CPI and the headline is likely to be poor. The Lunar New Year holiday this year was earlier than normal, impacting year on year comparisons and likely to see CPI turn negative. Markets are forecasting a -0.4% decline, following +0.5% the month prior. PPI has been mired in deflation now for more than a year reflecting the challenges that producers face in extracting value. With the National People’s Congress starting, already headlines are out in terms of the goals for the year. The government has said that they expect GDP growth to be 5% and CPI to be around 2%. The February release for now can be looked through as interrupted however the challenges to get to 2% for CPI and PPI to move positive remain. China will also release their New Yuan Loans data for February and much like CPI will be an interrupted data set and as such will likely be looked through. That said the market expects a rise in New Yuan Loans to CNY6.4bn, from CNY5.1bn in January with aggregate financing rising to CNY9.6bn from CNY7.05bn.
WEDNESDAY - India January Industrial Production and February Inflation
India’s industrial production data will be the first release for it post the RBI cut and market expects a small rise. Having averaged over 4% for the last year, the last print of 3.2% may have been somewhat of a warning shot for the RBI as they decided on rates. India also see’s the February CPI release where forecasters expect a further moderation. Against a RBI target of 4%, January’s release of 4.31% may not be achieved as prices slow further driven by food. The market expects for February CPI to be at 3.98%, supporting the rate cut at the prior meeting but as yet not weak enough to bring about an immediate further cut.
WEDNESDAY - The ECB and Its Watchers Conference
The 2025 ECB and Its Watchers conference will see "central bankers, financial market participants and academics discuss current issues of monetary policy and financial stability". Headlining the agenda are speeches from ECB President Lagarde (0845GMT) and Chief Economist Lane (1515CET). The conference comes less than a week after the latest ECB decision, which saw policy being described as "becoming meaningfully less restrictive" after another 25bp cut was delivered. The conference will provide a platform for Lagarde and Lane to delve into more detail around the policy statement tweaks, to provide markets a clearer picture of what to watch ahead of the April 17 decision (which is currently priced as a toss-up between another 25bp cut and a hold).
WEDNESDAY - NBP Decision (Poland)
Any interest-rate action would take the market off guard, with the NBP consistently signalling the intention to stay the course until receiving convincing evidence that inflation is in the process of converging with the target. The new inflation projection is set to steal the limelight this time around, with market participants eyeing its impact on NBP rhetoric, as they continue to question the credibility of the central bank's longer-term hawkish resolve.
WEDNESDAY - US February Inflation
Growth concerns of US trade and broader economic policy have taken precedence in recent weeks although next week sees inflation in focus with the February CPI and PPI reports. Last month’s January release saw a strong CPI release build on the solid payrolls report (including revisions) to at one point price only a single 25bp cut from the Fed this year before softer core PCE implications from the PPI report took the edge off the hawkish reaction. Bloomberg consensus currently sees core CPI at a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M after a strong 0.45% M/M in January. Core services ex housing will no doubt be watched closely after it surged 0.76% M/M in January. The details within both the CPI and PPI reports are going to be key as always though, considering core PCE printed ‘only’ 0.285% M/M in January. Fed Chair Powell on Friday afternoon: “We do not need to be in a hurry, and are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.”
We repeat the Fed’s Beige Book from March 5 in its entirety being its first update of anecdotal evidence under the second Trump administration: “Prices increased moderately in most Districts, but several Districts reported an uptick in the pace of increase relative to the previous reporting period. Input price pressures were generally greater than sales price pressures, particularly in manufacturing and construction. Many Districts noted that higher prices for eggs and other food ingredients were impacting food processors and restaurants. Reports of substantial increases in insurance and freight transportation costs were also widespread. Firms in multiple Districts noted difficulty passing input costs on to customers. However, contacts in most Districts expected potential tariffs on inputs would lead them to raise prices, with isolated reports of firms raising prices preemptively.”
WEDNESDAY - BOC Decision (Canada)
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut its overnight rate target another 25bp on Wednesday to 2.75%, with BoC-dated OIS showing it mostly priced but analysts not as clear cut with 19 of 27 forecasting a cut vs 8 looking for no change. It’s quite likely that a pause would have been seriously considered if going on recent trends alone, and even Friday’s labour report with disappointing jobs growth saw the unemployment rate surprisingly hold at 6.6% as it remains below November’s cycle high of 6.9%. Instead, a 25bp cut is seen as a prudent step to the mid-point of the BoC’s estimated neutral range of 2.25-3.25% amidst penal US trade policies under the second Trump administration. Tariffs have been threatened, deployed and then pared in a revolving cycle but the uncertainty is damaging. The latest in this ever-changing backdrop, Trump has said the US may do reciprocal tariffs on Canada as early as today (Friday) or Monday. It’s estimated that 38% of Canadian exports to the US are USMCA-compliant, a latest area of focus from Trump, although RBC estimate this could be over 90% relatively quickly. Governor Macklem in January talked on stepping up outreach activities with businesses and households and we watch for any guidance on how these real-time conditions might be developing.
THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)
The BCRP’s interest rate decision is expected to be a close call next week, as the central bank nears the end of its easing cycle. After pausing last month, latest inflation data look to keep the door open to a further 25bp cut on Thursday. Headline inflation fell to its lowest level since September 2018 in February, while core inflation declined close to the 2% target. However, uncertainty about global trade policies could yet stay the central bank’s hand for another month, especially with the policy rate already close to its neutral level.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 09/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CPI |
| 09/03/2025 | 0130/0930 | *** | CN | Producer Price Index |
| 10/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** |  JP | average wages (p) |
| 10/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | ** |  GB | KPMG/REC Jobs Report |
| 10/03/2025 | 0600/1500 | JP | Economy Watchers Survey | |
| 10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** |  NO | CPI Norway |
| 10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  SE | Private Sector Production m/m |
| 10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** |  DE | Trade Balance |
| 10/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Industrial Production |
| 10/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  IT | PPI |
| 10/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | New Loans |
| 10/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | Money Supply |
| 10/03/2025 | - | *** | CN | Social Financing |
| 10/03/2025 | 1500/1100 | ** |  US | NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations |
| 10/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 10/03/2025 | 1530/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 11/03/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | JP | Household spending |
| 11/03/2025 | 2350/0850 | *** | JP | GDP |
| 11/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 11/03/2025 | 1000/0600 | ** | US | NFIB Small Business Optimism Index |
| 11/03/2025 | 1255/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 11/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS jobs opening level |
| 11/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | US | JOLTS quits Rate |
| 11/03/2025 | 1600/1200 | *** | US | USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE |
| 11/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/03/2025 | 0001/0001 | * | GB | RICS House Prices |
| 12/03/2025 | 0730/0730 | GB | DMO propose calendar for first 3 weeks of FY25/26 | |
| 12/03/2025 | 0845/0945 |  EU | Lagarde at "ECB and Its Watchers" conference Frankfurt | |
| 12/03/2025 | 1000/1000 | ** | GB | Gilt Outright Auction Result |
| 12/03/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 12/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | CPI |
| 12/03/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** |  CA | Bank of Canada Policy Decision |
| 12/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 12/03/2025 | 1515/1615 | EU | Lane at "ECB and Its Watchers" conference Frankfurt | |
| 12/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result |
| 12/03/2025 | 1800/1400 | ** | US | Treasury Budget |
| 13/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | SE | Inflation Report |
| 13/03/2025 | 0950/1050 | EU | de Guindos in fireside chat at EIOPA Sustainable Finance Conference | |
| 13/03/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Industrial Production |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Building Permits |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | * | CA | Household debt-to-income |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 13/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | US | PPI |
| 13/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | * | US | Services Revenues |
| 13/03/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | US | Natural Gas Stocks |
| 13/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | *** | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | UK Monthly GDP |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | SE | Unemployment |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Trade Balance |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Index of Services |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | *** | GB | Index of Production |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0800 | *** | DE | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0700/0700 | ** | GB | Output in the Construction Industry |
| 14/03/2025 | 0730/0730 | GB | DMO calendar for first 3 weeks of FY 25/26 confirmed | |
| 14/03/2025 | 0745/0845 | *** |  FR | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0800/0900 | *** |  ES | HICP (f) |
| 14/03/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Industrial Production |
| 14/03/2025 | 0930/0930 | GB | BoE/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey | |
| 14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Monthly Survey of Manufacturing |
| 14/03/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | CA | Wholesale Trade |
| 14/03/2025 | 1315/1415 | EU | Cipollone in panel discussion at "Fifty years of Consob: present and future - Reflections in Bocconi" Milan | |
| 14/03/2025 | 1400/1000 | ** | US | U. Mich. Survey of Consumers |
| 14/03/2025 | 1700/1300 | ** | US | Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly |
