MNI Global Week Ahead - Let The EOY Central Bank Wave Begin

See below for the key events in developed and emerging markets next week:

Developed Markets

TUESDAY - RBA Decision

The Bank of Canada is seen keeping its policy interest rate at the low end of its neutral range Wednesday to wrap a year where it cut three times to cushion the shock of the biggest tariff war with the United States since the 1930s, and was still able to see inflation stabilize at target. All 23 economists surveyed by MNI see the overnight target remaining 2.25% in a decision at 9:45am EST, the first unanimous poll in recent memory. Governor Tiff Macklem's Oct. 29 cut of 25bps came with the message that unless the economy has a wild swing, he has done enough to tackle U.S. tariffs as high as 50% and keep inflation around 2%. Jobs and GDP since then have grown faster than expected but hardly enough to make up losses coming from the biggest year-to-date trade deficit on record that is hurting business investment. Prime Minister Mark Carney has signalled he and Donald Trump won't engage on saving a North American trade deal until next year and the U.S. President has suggested he may walk away from such a bargain.

WEDNESDAY - FOMC Decision

Next week’s US calendar is dominated by the FOMC decision on Wednesday, with a third consecutive 25bp cut almost fully priced. Expect it to be a contentious meeting however, with many arguing for a pause not least whilst they’re still relatively in the dark on key official data releases following the government shutdown. Fed Chair Powell opted for a surprisingly hawkish tone at the late October press conference, highlighting a deeply divided committee on prospects for another cut in December. The “fog” had appeared to win out until NY Fed’s Williams, a senior permanent voter, gave unusually explicit guidance on still seeing room “for a further adjustment in the near term”. With no pushback from FOMC members or media briefings, it appears this message has approval from the core of the FOMC which should be enough to see a rate cut this month. The likely catalyst was the further increase in the unemployment rate to 4.44% back in September, although subsequent tracking suggests stabilization and jobless claims data don’t show any signs of deterioration. We’ll be looking for the number of hawkish dissents (we’d be surprised if anyone joins Miran dissenting for a 50bp cut) and expect a greater number to object to a cut in the 2025 dot plot, whilst the distribution of dots for 2026 should be in greater focus. As for the economic projections, we expect upward revisions to GDP growth but downward revisions to near-term core PCE inflation with tariff passthrough proving less severe than previously feared.

THURSDAY - SNB Decision

The SNB is expected to keep policy rates unchanged at 0.00% on Thursday, with a cut back into negative territory highly improbable given inflation has remained within the SNB’s defined range of price stability since May. The rate outlook is likely to continue to be characterized by a high bar to further cuts, with focus on any messaging on how far the Bank are from such a move given inflation undershot the latest Q4 forecasts by almost 0.3pp to date. A key here may be any downward adjustment to the end-of-horizon conditional inflation forecast. The Swiss – US tariffs deal meanwhile brings levies down to 15% and alleviates any concern over earlier, steeper rates which weighed on Q3 GDP growth. The SNB’s FX communications paragraph is likely to remain materially unchanged given limited net moves in the trade-weighted CHF since September.

Emerging Markets

THROUGH THE WEEK - China Data

Trade and inflation data will be key for China next week. Having declined in October, exports are expected to expand by 4.2% trending back towards the 3-year average of 4.8%. The decline in October is attributed to shipments being brought forward ahead of the Trump Xi meeting, shipments being front loaded ahead of the holiday period and base effect. The component of the data watched closely will be the shipments to the US and how they are impacted post tariffs. Imports (as a proxy for the domestic economy) will be closely monitored also and forecast to rise by 2.8% in November, following just 1.0% expansion in October. By country, all imports fell in October with the exception of imports from Russia. Later in the week will see the November CPI and PPI. October CPI climbed back to positive at +0.2% after 2 consecutive months of deflation and is forecast to climb further to +0.7%. PPI however is where deflationary pressures are most entrenched with forecasts for -2.0% in November. The anti-involution policies enacted to curb price wars seem likely to remain in place for some time with limited expectations for improvements in PPI. PPI has now printed negative each month since September 2022.

WEDNESDAY - Copom Decision (Brazil)

The Copom is widely expected to leave its Selic rate unchanged at 15.00% for a fourth successive meeting on Wednesday, as it remains cautious amid unanchored inflation expectations. However, the very restrictive stance appears to be having the desired effect, with inflation and inflation expectations now declining and economic activity softening. As such, focus will be on the forward guidance and any signals that the Copom is opening the door to a rate cut early next year. This could include removing the reference to being willing to hike rates further, if necessary, which could pave the way for a rate cut as soon as the January meeting.

THURSDAY - BSP Decision (Philippines)

The CBRT holds it final rate-setting meeting of 2025. Following softer-than-expected Q3 GDP and November CPI inflation data, easing is widely expected to continue, with the only uncertainty the size of the cut that will be delivered. Last month, the Bank reduced the one-week repo rate by 100bps to 39.50%. Expectations are generally skewed towards a 100-150bp cut being delivered.

THURSDAY - BCRP Decision (Peru)

The BCRP interest rate decision looks like being a close call, with a slight majority of analysts leaning towards a 25bp cut to 4.00%. Economic activity is continuing to grow around its potential rate, and the policy rate is already very close to neutral, limiting the urgency for a further cut at this juncture. However, continued FX strength presents a downside risk to the inflation outlook, even as the headline rate remains near the bottom of the 1-3% target range. As such, risks remain skewed to a further 25bp policy rate cut in the coming meetings.

Date	GMT/Local	Impact	Country	Event
08/12/2025	2330/0830	**	JP	average wages (p)
08/12/2025	2350/0850		JP	Balance of Payments
08/12/2025	2350/0850	***	JP	GDP
08/12/2025	-		AU	Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting
08/12/2025	0001/0001		GB	KPMG-REC Report on Jobs
08/12/2025	0500/1400		JP	Economy Watchers Survey
08/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Industrial Production
08/12/2025	-	***	CN	Trade
08/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
08/12/2025	1500/1600		EU	ECB Cipollone Lecture at Frankfurt School of Finance & Management
08/12/2025	1600/1100	**	US	NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations
08/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill
08/12/2025	1630/1130	*	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill
08/12/2025	1700/1700		GB	BOE Taylor Panel on Growth/Wealth/Debt
08/12/2025	1800/1300	***	US	US Note 03 Year Treasury Auction Result
08/12/2025	1830/1830		GB	BOE Lombardelli Panel on Women in Economics
08/12/2025	-		US	FOMC Meetings with S.E.P.
09/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor
09/12/2025	0330/1430	***	AU	RBA Rate Decision
09/12/2025	0700/0800	**	DE	Trade Balance
09/12/2025	1000/1000	*	GB	Index Linked Gilt Outright Auction Result
09/12/2025	1100/0600	**	US	NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
09/12/2025	1355/0855	**	US	Redbook Retail Sales Index
09/12/2025	1415/1415		GB	Lombardelli, Ramsden, Dhingra, Mann at TSC
09/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS jobs opening level
09/12/2025	1500/1000	***	US	JOLTS quits Rate
09/12/2025	1700/1200	***	US	USDA Crop Estimates - WASDE
09/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	US Note 10 Year Treasury Auction Result
09/12/2025	-		CA	Bank of Canada Meeting
10/12/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	CPI
10/12/2025	0130/0930	***	CN	Producer Price Index
10/12/2025	0700/0800	***	NO	CPI Norway
10/12/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Private Sector Production m/m
10/12/2025	0900/1000	*	IT	Industrial Production
10/12/2025	1000/1000	**	GB	Gilt Outright Auction Result
10/12/2025	1000/1000		GB	Chancellor Reeves Testifies at TSC on Budget
10/12/2025	1045/1045		GB	BOE Bailey Pre-recorded Chat on Financial Stability
10/12/2025	1055/1155		EU	ECB Lagarde Interview on Currencies/Digital Euro
10/12/2025	1200/0700	**	US	MBA Weekly Applications Index
10/12/2025	1200/0700	**	BR	Brazil Final CPI
10/12/2025	-	***	CN	Money Supply
10/12/2025	-	***	CN	Social Financing
10/12/2025	-	***	CN	New Loans
10/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Employment Cost Index
10/12/2025	1445/0945	***	CA	Bank of Canada Policy Decision
10/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks
10/12/2025	1530/1030		CA	BOC press conference
10/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	US DOE Petroleum Supply
10/12/2025	1900/1400	**	US	Treasury Budget
10/12/2025	1900/1400	***	US	FOMC Statement
10/12/2025	1930/1430		US	Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
11/12/2025	-		CH	Swiss National Bank Meeting
11/12/2025	0001/0001	*	GB	RICS House Prices
11/12/2025	0030/1130	***	AU	Labor Force Survey
11/12/2025	0700/0800	***	SE	Final Inflation Report
11/12/2025	0700/0800	***	SE	Final Inflation Report
11/12/2025	0830/0930	***	CH	SNB Interest Rate Decision
11/12/2025	1000/1000		GB	BOE Bailey Gives Evidence At Covid-19 Inquiry
11/12/2025	1100/0600	***	TR	Turkey Benchmark Rate
11/12/2025	-		EU	ECB Lagarde and Cipollone at Eurogroup Meeting
11/12/2025	1330/0830	***	US	Jobless Claims
11/12/2025	1330/0830	**	US	WASDE Weekly Import/Export
11/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	Household debt-to-income
11/12/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance)
11/12/2025	1500/1000	*	US	Services Revenues
11/12/2025	1530/1030	**	US	Natural Gas Stocks
11/12/2025	1800/1300	***	US	US Treasury Auction Result for 30 Year Bond
12/12/2025	0430/1330	**	JP	Industrial Production
12/12/2025	0700/0700	***	GB	UK Monthly GDP
12/12/2025	0700/0800	**	SE	Unemployment
12/12/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Trade Balance
12/12/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Index of Services
12/12/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Index of Production
12/12/2025	0700/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
12/12/2025	0700/0700	**	GB	Output in the Construction Industry
12/12/2025	0700/0800	***	DE	Germany CPI (f)
12/12/2025	0745/0845	***	FR	HICP (f)
12/12/2025	0800/0900	***	ES	HICP (f)
12/12/2025	0930/0930	**	GB	Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey
12/12/2025	1300/0800		US	Philly Fed's Anna Paulson
12/12/2025	-		EU	ECB de Guindos at ECOFIN Meeting
12/12/2025	1330/0830	*	CA	Building Permits
12/12/2025	1330/0830	**	CA	Wholesale Trade
12/12/2025	1330/0830		US	Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack
12/12/2025	1535/1035		US	Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee
12/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
12/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly
12/12/2025	1800/1300	**	US	Baker Hughes Rig Count Overview - Weekly